> ## Content Index
> Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.predictmatters.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further.

# 2028 Presidential Election Odds: What Prediction Markets Show After the Midterms
- URL: https://www.predictmatters.com/2028-presidential-election-odds-after-midterms/
- Published: 2026-11-04T12:50:13.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-04T12:50:13.000Z
- Description: Democrats have captured Congress, and the race for the White House in 2028 is already shifting. Kalshi's latest prices show new movement among the presidential contenders and a tightening Republican nomination contest.
- Author: PredictMatters
- Tags: Markets, Politics

The 2026 midterms have reshaped Washington, with Democrats winning control of both the House and Senate after several victories in Republican-held territory. While some races remain unresolved, attention is already shifting toward the 2028 presidential election.

On Kalshi, the early presidential and nomination markets are showing significant movement following the midterms, with prices shifting among leading contenders in both parties.

## Market Snapshot: 2028 Presidential Election Odds

- [**2028 presidential winner**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresperson/pres-person/kxpresperson-28?ref=predictmatters.com): Jon Ossoff (16%), Gavin Newsom (12%), J.D. Vance (11%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (11%), and Marco Rubio (11%).
- [**2028 Republican presidential nominee**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomr/republican-primary-winner/kxpresnomr-28?ref=predictmatters.com): Vance (27%), Rubio (25%), and Ron DeSantis (18%).
- [**2028 Democratic presidential nominee**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28?ref=predictmatters.com): Ossoff (21%), Ocasio-Cortez (14%), and Newsom (14%).

*Market prices observed November 4, 2026, at 6:52 a.m. EST. Prices are subject to change.*

## 2028 Presidential Election Winner Odds: Ossoff Moves Ahead

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/24/c0/24c05202-5a17-4388-aeb9-89b35a8fceff/content/images/2026/11/2028-President-Prices-11-04-2026.png)

Kalshi's presidential winner market now places Ossoff at the top of a closely grouped field. His rise follows a significant election-night victory in Georgia, where he defeated Republican Mike Collins to secure another Senate term in a state President Donald Trump carried in 2024.

- **Jon Ossoff - 16%:** Up four percentage points following his reelection victory over Republican Mike Collins in Georgia. Ossoff retained his Senate seat in a state Trump carried in 2024, further boosting his profile as attention shifts toward potential 2028 contenders.
- **Gavin Newsom - 12%:** Down three points. Newsom is approaching the end of his second term as California governor. He has been among the most visible Democratic governors challenging the Trump administration.
- **J.D. Vance - 11%:** Down nine points as Republicans absorb substantial congressional losses. The vice president's decline is particularly notable because he has also lost ground in the Republican nomination market, where Rubio and DeSantis have narrowed the gap.
- **Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - 11%:** Up 1.9 points. The New York congresswoman has not announced a presidential campaign, but her national profile has made her a recurring name in discussions about the Democratic Party's next generation of leadership.
- **Marco Rubio - 11%:** As secretary of state, Rubio maintains a prominent role in the Trump administration while remaining less directly involved in its domestic political battles than Vance. The distance between the roles bears watching as the market continues to take shape.
- **Ron DeSantis - 5.2%:** The Florida governor's renewed market momentum comes as Republicans reassess their direction following the midterms. DeSantis has a different record to draw upon: during his governorship, Florida shifted decisively toward Republicans.

The early 2028 picture is becoming more competitive, not clearer. The midterms have disrupted the political assumptions underpinning the early markets, opening the door to a broader field of contenders. The question now is whether these shifts mark the beginning of a lasting realignment in presidential expectations or simply the market's first reaction to a dramatically changed political landscape.

## 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds: Vance's Lead Narrows

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/24/c0/24c05202-5a17-4388-aeb9-89b35a8fceff/content/images/2026/11/2028-Republican-Nominee-11-04-2026.png)

The Republican nomination market has undergone a pronounced shift around the midterms. Vance, who previously held a substantial advantage, now leads Rubio by only two points. DeSantis has also moved sharply higher, leaving three candidates accounting for most of the probability among the leading contenders.

- **J.D. Vance - 27%:** Down eight points following an election in which Vance was heavily involved in campaigning and fundraising. The vice president spent months building relationships and promoting candidates, making the midterms an early test of his political influence beyond the White House. His standing in the 2028 market has weakened even as that organizational groundwork remains in place.
- **Marco Rubio - 25%:** Up two points. Rubio has previously said he would support Vance if the vice president runs, but Trump has repeatedly entertained the question of which man should succeed him. Rubio's dual responsibilities as secretary of state and national security adviser give him a substantial foreign-policy portfolio, while his intentions regarding 2028 remain unresolved.
- **Ron DeSantis - 18%:** Up 13.9 points. The Florida governor experienced a similar burst of presidential speculation after his decisive 2022 reelection, when other prominent Trump-backed Republicans struggled. His latest market surge comes after another difficult midterm cycle for the GOP, reviving questions about whether Republicans will look beyond the administration's most prominent figures for their next nominee.
- **Joe Kent - 4%:** Up 1.1 points, placing him fourth in nomination trading. The substantial gap between Kent and the top three underscores how concentrated the market remains despite the recent reshuffling.
- **Donald Trump Jr. - 3%:** Down 1.1 points. Despite his prominent role in the MAGA movement and his past advocacy for Vance, Trump's eldest son remains a comparatively minor presence in nomination trading. Tucker Carlson (2.9%) and Brian Kemp (2.8%) are priced similarly.

Will the Republican nomination become a contest over continuity or a change in direction? Vance and Rubio are closely tied to the current administration, while DeSantis brings an established electoral record from outside Washington. The midterms have brought that contrast into sharper focus, giving traders more than one potential path to consider as the 2028 field develops.

## 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds: Ossoff Takes the Lead

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/24/c0/24c05202-5a17-4388-aeb9-89b35a8fceff/content/images/2026/11/2028-Democratic-Nominee-11-04-2026.png)

Ossoff's election-night success has also coincided with a sharp rise in Democratic nomination trading. His Kalshi price now stands at 21%, ahead of Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom, who are tied for second at 14%. The market's longer-term chart shows how dramatically the Democratic field has changed over the past year, with Newsom previously commanding a much larger share of trading expectations.

- **Jon Ossoff - 21%:** Up seven points following his decisive reelection in Georgia, where he defeated Republican Mike Collins in a state Trump carried in 2024\. The result has intensified presidential speculation, although Ossoff has repeatedly said he has no interest in running in 2028.
- **Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - 14%:** Up one point. The New York congresswoman offers a different political profile from several of the governors and former administration officials in the field, with a national following built around progressive economic policies and grassroots organizing. Whether that translates into national traction remains an open question.
- **Gavin Newsom - 14%:** Down one point. The term-limited California governor has spent the midterm cycle campaigning beyond his home state, including in the South and early presidential primary territory. His national political activity provides a more concrete indication of potential 2028 ambitions than his recent decline in nomination pricing alone.
- **Pete Buttigieg - 5.1%:** Up 0.6 points. Buttigieg enters the early 2028 discussion with experience from his 2020 presidential campaign, when he won the most delegates in Iowa, and four years leading the Transportation Department. Unlike several emerging names, he has already built a national primary campaign organization.
- **Andy Beshear - 4.7%:** The Kentucky governor has won two statewide elections in a heavily Republican state, giving him a distinct electoral resume within the Democratic field. Other potential contenders include Texas Democrat James Talarico (4.4%), former Vice President Kamala Harris (4.3%), and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (4.2%).

With more than $263 million in trading volume, the Democratic nomination market has attracted considerably more activity than either of the other two featured markets. Yet the contrast between Ossoff's sudden rise and Newsom's earlier dominance illustrates just how fluid the contest remains. The emerging question is whether Democrats will rally around established national figures or give greater attention to candidates whose electoral records offer a different path forward.

## What Could Move the 2028 Presidential Election Odds Next?

The midterms have changed the political landscape, but they have not settled the questions that will define the 2028 presidential race. The next phase will test whether the market's early reaction holds up as both parties navigate a divided Washington, potential candidates make their intentions clearer, and new political battles take shape.

- **The final balance of power:** Democrats have secured both chambers of Congress, but outstanding races will determine the size of their majorities. Those margins will matter for legislative negotiations, congressional investigations, and the ability of party leaders to advance their priorities.
- **The Republican succession question:** Vance and Rubio hold prominent positions in the Trump administration, while DeSantis has an established political operation and a record of statewide success in Florida. How these figures position themselves over the next year could reveal whether the Republican nomination develops into a contest between competing visions for the party's future.
- **Ossoff's presidential intentions:** His Georgia victory has elevated his standing in nomination trading, despite his public statements expressing no interest in a 2028 campaign. Any change in that position, or evidence of preparations for a national run, would give traders something more concrete to evaluate than election-night momentum.
- **The Democratic campaign takes shape:** Newsom's approaching departure from the California governorship, Ocasio-Cortez's national profile, and the presidential campaign experience of Buttigieg and Harris create several possible paths for the party. Early-state visits, fundraising networks, and eventual campaign announcements will help distinguish serious candidacies from speculative market interest.
- **The next two years in Washington:** A Democratic Congress and Republican White House will confront disputes over spending, legislation, and oversight. How those conflicts unfold, alongside economic conditions and the administration's policy record, will provide no shortage of developments for presidential markets to assess.

The midterms have delivered the first major shake-up in the 2028 presidential markets, but the race is still taking shape. Today's leading contenders may look very different a year from now, particularly as both parties confront the political consequences of this election. For traders, the challenge will be distinguishing short-term reactions from developments that fundamentally change the outlook for the White House.

## Sign up for PredictMatters

Get up to speed on what matters in prediction markets.

Subscribe 

Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. 

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.