> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.predictmatters.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # College Football National Championship Prediction Market: Texas Takes Over After Ohio State Comeback - URL: https://www.predictmatters.com/college-football-national-championship-prediction-market/ - Published: 2026-09-15T12:58:18.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-15T12:58:18.000Z - Description: Texas has moved to the top of the national championship prediction market after a historic comeback against Ohio State reshaped the early title race. - Author: PredictMatters - Tags: Markets, Sports Two weeks into the college football season, the national championship market has a new leader. Texas has climbed to 16% after erasing a 20-point fourth-quarter deficit against Ohio State, while the Buckeyes remain firmly in the championship picture despite falling from the top of the board. Notre Dame, Miami, Indiana, and Georgia are also clustered within six points of the Longhorns. ## Market Snapshot - **Texas:** 16% - **Notre Dame:** 13% - **Ohio State:** 12% - **Miami:** 10% - **Indiana:** 10% - **Georgia:** 10% - **Volume:** $22.03M+ - *Prediction market prices as of 8:35 a.m. ET on Sept. 15, 2026.* ## Quick Brief The college football national championship race has started moving. On Kalshi, Texas has climbed from roughly 11% before Saturday's game to become the market favorite at 16%, while Ohio State remains firmly in the leading group at 12%. The two moves followed one of the most dramatic results of the young season: Texas rallied from 23-3 down in the fourth quarter to beat the previously top-ranked Buckeyes 24-23. The market is hardly declaring Texas the team to beat. Notre Dame sits second at 13%, with Ohio State at 12%. Miami, defending national champion Indiana, and Georgia are each priced at 10%, leaving six programs separated by only six percentage points. Week 2 shook up the championship picture without producing anything close to a runaway favorite. ## Texas takes over after historic comeback Texas' rise comes after a game that looked lost for three quarters. Ohio State led 23-3 entering the fourth before the Longhorns scored touchdowns on three consecutive drives. Arch Manning threw a touchdown pass to Ryan Wingo to begin the comeback, and Hollywood Smothers scored twice in the final eight minutes, including the winning 1-yard touchdown with 25 seconds remaining. The rally was the largest fourth-quarter comeback ever against an AP No. 1 team. Texas became the first team in at least 22 seasons to erase a 20-point fourth-quarter deficit against the nation's top-ranked team. The result also carried over to the traditional rankings. Texas moved from No. 4 to No. 1 in the AP Top 25, while Ohio State fell to No. 6. Prediction markets delivered a similar verdict, but with an important distinction. Ohio State's loss still leaves the Buckeyes at 12%, only four points behind Texas. The loss damaged Ohio State's position. It did not remove the Buckeyes from the championship race. ## The title race remains crowded behind Texas Other leading contenders strengthened their cases without facing anything resembling Texas' test. Notre Dame moved to 2-0 with a 52-0 win over Rice. CJ Carr completed 16 of 20 passes for 253 yards and four touchdowns, while the Irish defense held Rice to 128 total yards. Notre Dame now sits second on the championship board at 13%. Miami remained at 10% after overwhelming Florida A&M 77-7, while Indiana slipped one point to 10% despite shutting out Howard 55-0\. The Hoosiers allowed only 57 total yards, and quarterback Josh Hoover threw four touchdown passes in the first half. Georgia sits at 10% after beating Western Kentucky 70-20\. Gunner Stockton threw five touchdown passes, tying a Georgia single-game record. The result is a market with plenty of contenders but little separation. ## Other national championship contenders to watch The board gets interesting beyond the leading six. LSU sits at 9%. The Tigers beat Louisiana Tech 45-14 to remain unbeaten and now face their biggest test of the young season when they visit Ole Miss on Saturday. The matchup pairs the No. 7 and No. 8 teams in the latest AP poll. Oregon has experienced the sharpest decline among the major contenders. The Ducks have fallen from roughly 11% before Saturday's game to 4% after a 39-31 loss at Oklahoma State. The Cowboys entered the game unranked and had lost 21 consecutive games against FBS opponents before pulling the upset. Oregon subsequently dropped from No. 6 to No. 21 in the AP poll. Alabama, Michigan, Texas A&M, and USC are each priced at 3%. Michigan is the most notable recent riser in that group, moving back into the AP Top 25 at No. 19 after beating then-No. 11 Oklahoma 17-10. That lower tier gives the market plenty of room to move. With no team above 16%, a major win or loss can still materially reorder the championship board. ## What to Watch - **Texas as the new favorite:** The Longhorns now own the market lead and the No. 1 AP ranking after their comeback against Ohio State. They host UTSA on Saturday before the schedule becomes considerably more demanding. - **Ohio State's response:** The Buckeyes lost their position atop the board but remain the third-most likely champion at 12%. Their next opportunity comes at home against Kent State. - **Georgia enters SEC play:** The Bulldogs are part of the leading group at 10% after their 70-point performance against Western Kentucky. A road trip to Arkansas on Saturday begins a conference schedule that will provide much stronger tests. - **LSU-Ole Miss:** No. 7 LSU and No. 8 Ole Miss meet Saturday in the week's only matchup between AP top-10 teams. LSU's 9% championship price puts it immediately behind the market's leading group. - **Oregon's recovery:** The Ducks have fallen from roughly 11% before Saturday's upset to 4%, showing how quickly one September loss can change a futures market. The weekend produced a new national championship favorite. It also showed why the early title race remains far from settled. Want to compare where prediction markets are available and how the leading options differ? Our [best prediction market platforms](https://www.predictmatters.com/best-prediction-market-platforms/) guide covers the major platforms, key differences, and what to know before getting started. ## Sign up for PredictMatters Get up to speed on what matters in prediction markets. Subscribe Email sent! 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