> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.predictmatters.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Patriots vs. Seahawks: What Prediction Markets Expect in Super Bowl Rematch - URL: https://www.predictmatters.com/patriots-vs-seahawks-prediction-market/ - Published: 2026-09-09T11:57:29.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-09T11:57:29.000Z - Description: The NFL season begins Wednesday night with a rematch of Super Bowl LX, as the defending champion Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots at Lumen Field. - Author: PredictMatters - Tags: Markets, Sports Seven months after Seattle beat New England 29–13 to win its second Super Bowl, prediction market traders favor the Seahawks to start their title defense with another victory. ## Market Snapshot - **Seattle Seahawks:** 61% - **New England Patriots:** 39% - **Seattle to win by more than 3.5 points:** 47% - **More than 44.5 total points:** 49% - **Volume:** $6.15M+ - **Date:** Wednesday, Sept. 9 - **Time:** 8:20 p.m. ET - **Venue:** Lumen Field, Seattle - **Broadcast:** NBC, Peacock - *Prediction market prices and volume as of 7:37 a.m. ET on Sept. 9, 2026* ## Quick Brief Seattle enters the opener with a 61% probability of beating New England, giving the defending champions a clear but far from overwhelming edge. The rest of the market suggests traders expect considerably more resistance from the Patriots than they provided in February. Seattle has just a 47% probability of winning by more than 3.5 points, while the 44.5-point total is nearly a coin flip at 49%. That creates a straightforward opening-night market story: Seattle is favored to win the Super Bowl rematch, but traders aren't pricing another comfortable Seahawks victory. ## Seven months after the Super Bowl The last meeting wasn't particularly close. Seattle's defense overwhelmed New England in Super Bowl LX, holding the Patriots scoreless through three quarters and sacking Drake Maye six times. The Seahawks also forced three turnovers, including Uchenna Nwosu's 45-yard interception return for a touchdown, on the way to a 29–13 victory. Wednesday gives Maye an immediate second chance against the defense that ended his breakout season. The third-year quarterback finished 2025 with 4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, and eight interceptions while leading the NFL in passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. He finished second to Matthew Stafford in MVP voting. New England also gave him a new No. 1 receiver during the offseason, acquiring A.J. Brown from Philadelphia for a 2028 first-round pick and 2027 fifth-rounder. Brown replaces Stefon Diggs atop a receiving group that also added Romeo Doubs. One weapon Maye won't have Wednesday is running back TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson, who led New England with 911 rushing yards last season, has been ruled out with an ankle injury. ## Seattle starts its title defense with a different supporting cast The Seahawks kept many of the pieces that powered last season's championship run, including quarterback Sam Darnold and reigning Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Darnold threw for 4,048 yards and 25 touchdowns in his first season in Seattle, while Smith-Njigba finished with 1,793 receiving yards. But the defending champions aren't running back exactly the same roster. Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III left for Kansas City in free agency after rushing for 1,027 yards during the regular season. Seattle also lost Boye Mafe, Coby Bryant, and Riq Woolen from its defense. That turnover adds some uncertainty to a team the market still considers the stronger side Wednesday. Seattle's 61% win probability establishes a clear favorite, but the 47% probability of winning by more than 3.5 points suggests traders aren't expecting much separation. ## What to Watch - **Maye gets another shot at Seattle's defense.** The Seahawks sacked him six times and forced three turnovers in the Super Bowl. Seven months later, Maye returns with Brown as his new top receiving option. - **New England's backfield.** Henderson's absence removes the Patriots' leading rusher from 2025 and could put more of the offensive burden on Maye and Rhamondre Stevenson. - **Seattle without its Super Bowl MVP.** Walker turned a late-season surge into Super Bowl MVP honors before signing with Kansas City. The Seahawks begin their title defense without the back who led them in rushing last season. - **A tighter game than February?** Seattle is favored to win, but the secondary markets are much less decisive. A 47% probability of a Seahawks win by more than 3.5 points leaves the market centered around a relatively competitive opener. The Seahawks will raise their championship banner before kickoff Wednesday. Then the team they beat to earn it gets the first opportunity to test whether Seattle can pick up where it left off. For more on how traders are approaching the new season, read our [Football Prediction Markets Guide](https://www.predictmatters.com/football-prediction-markets-2026/). ## Sign up for PredictMatters Get up to speed on what matters in prediction markets. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.