> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.predictmatters.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Super Bowl Prediction Markets: 3-0 Bills, 1-2 Rams Share the Lead - URL: https://www.predictmatters.com/super-bowl-prediction-market-week-3-2026/ - Published: 2026-09-29T11:52:08.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-29T11:52:08.000Z - Description: Buffalo and Los Angeles share the top spot after Week 3, with San Francisco close behind and several contenders packed into the next tier. - Author: PredictMatters - Tags: Markets, Sports Three weeks into the NFL season, prediction markets have yet to identify a clear Super Bowl favorite. Buffalo and Los Angeles share the top spot on the championship board, but their performance through Week 3 has been vastly different. San Francisco is lurking right behind and remains undefeated. ## Market Snapshot - **Buffalo Bills:** 12% - **Los Angeles Rams:** 12% - **San Francisco 49ers:** 11% - **Baltimore Ravens:** 8% - **Kansas City Chiefs:** 8% - **Seattle Seahawks:** 7% - **Market volume:** $36.15M+ - **Super Bowl LXI:** Feb. 14, 2027 - **Venue:** SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California - *Prediction market prices on Kalshi as of 7:13 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2026.* ## Quick Brief There is no runaway favorite in the Super Bowl prediction market after three weeks. Buffalo and Los Angeles lead at 12% apiece, with San Francisco only one point behind at 11%. Baltimore and Kansas City form the next tier at 8%, followed by defending champion Seattle at 7%. The tight board comes after a Week 3 slate that produced sharply different results among the contenders. Buffalo improved to 3-0 with a 24-16 victory over the Chargers despite committing five turnovers. The Rams went the other direction, surrendering a 16-0 halftime lead in a 30-26 loss at Denver. San Francisco also remained undefeated with a 36-30 win over Arizona. Kansas City joined Buffalo and San Francisco at 3-0 after beating Miami 24-10, while Baltimore moved to 2-1 with a dramatic 34-31 victory over Dallas in Rio de Janeiro. ## Buffalo shares the lead after surviving a messy win The Bills' perfect record survived its biggest scare yet Sunday. Buffalo turned the ball over five times against Los Angeles and didn't take its first lead until the fourth quarter. Josh Allen ran for two touchdowns, James Cook rushed for 154 yards, and the Bills defense repeatedly kept the Chargers from fully capitalizing on the mistakes. The Rams remain alongside Buffalo at 12% despite a much rougher Week 3. Los Angeles led Denver 16-0 at halftime Sunday night before allowing 30 second-half points in a 30-26 loss. Matthew Stafford threw for 390 yards and two touchdowns, but two interceptions proved costly, including a pick-six. The Rams are now 1-2 after also losing their opener to San Francisco. ## San Francisco closes in on the leaders The 49ers may have the strongest early-season resume among the top three. San Francisco is 3-0 after victories over the Rams, Dolphins, and Cardinals. Brock Purdy threw four touchdown passes against Arizona on Sunday, helping the 49ers survive a 36-30 divisional game. The concern is San Francisco's growing injury list. Mike Evans is day-to-day with a rib injury. Trent Williams is expected back at practice Thursday, but Nick Bosa is expected to miss multiple weeks. Ricky Pearsall is already out for the season. Kansas City has also quietly reached 3-0\. Patrick Mahomes completed 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 24-10 victory over Miami. The Chiefs remain at 8%, tied with Baltimore. Seattle has a 7% price after its first loss since last season. The defending champions committed three turnovers in a 33-31 upset at Washington, ending a 12-game winning streak. ## A crowded second tier The board remains deep beyond the six Snapshot teams. Denver sits at 5% after its comeback against Los Angeles, while Cincinnati, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Philadelphia are clustered at 4%. That leaves 11 teams at 4% or higher, with another five sitting between 2% and 3%. For now, the market has established a top three without establishing a true favorite. Buffalo, Los Angeles, and San Francisco lead, but the field behind them remains tightly packed. ## What to Watch - **Can Buffalo clean it up?** The Bills survived five turnovers against the Chargers, but another sloppy performance could be harder to overcome as the schedule continues. - **How does Los Angeles respond?** The Rams remain tied for the market lead despite a 1-2 start, making their next few games an early test of whether traders continue looking past the record. - **Can the 49ers stay healthy?** San Francisco is 3-0 and one point off the market lead, but Nick Bosa is expected to miss multiple weeks, and Mike Evans' status bears watching. - **Kansas City keeps lurking:** The Chiefs are 3-0 but still sit behind five teams on the championship board. Another strong stretch could put pressure on that 8% price. - **Who breaks from the pack?** Baltimore, Kansas City, and Seattle occupy the next tier, with Denver and a cluster of 4% teams close behind. Week 4 offers another chance for separation. For more on how these markets work throughout the season, see our guide to [football prediction markets](https://www.predictmatters.com/football-prediction-markets-2026/). ## Sign up for PredictMatters Get up to speed on what matters in prediction markets. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.