> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.predictmatters.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Will the Clarity Act Become Law? Prediction Market Forecast - URL: https://www.predictmatters.com/will-the-clarity-act-become-law-prediction-market-forecast/ - Published: 2026-08-25T10:39:50.000Z - Updated: 2026-08-25T10:39:50.000Z - Description: Prediction market traders see little chance of the Clarity Act becoming law before the midterms, but expectations rise considerably once the timeline extends into 2027. - Author: PredictMatters - Tags: Markets, Money ## Market Snapshot - **Before Nov. 1, 2026:** 16% - **Before Jan. 1, 2027:** 20% - **Before July 1, 2027:** 57% - **Market volume:** $6.7M+ - **As of:** Morning of Aug. 25, 2026 ## Quick Brief Prediction market traders remain skeptical that Congress will enact comprehensive crypto market structure legislation this year. Kalshi traders give qualifying legislation a 16% chance of becoming law before Nov. 1, shortly before the midterm elections. The probability increases only slightly to 20% by Jan. 1, 2027, but climbs to 57% when the deadline extends to July 1. Despite the market's Clarity Act framing, the contract isn't limited to that specific bill. It resolves Yes if any qualifying crypto market structure legislation becomes law by the listed deadline. To qualify, legislation must establish a comprehensive digital asset regulatory framework, delineate regulatory authority among federal agencies, and create definitions or classifications for digital assets. Stablecoin-only legislation, executive or regulatory action, and bills that pass only one chamber of Congress do not qualify. The Clarity Act is specifically listed as one example of legislation that would meet the criteria if enacted into law. The market's probabilities have recently moved higher amid renewed political attention around the legislation, but traders still appear to see 2027 as the more realistic window for action. ## The Big Picture The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would establish a federal regulatory framework for digital assets and more clearly divide oversight responsibilities between agencies, including the SEC and CFTC. The House passed the legislation in 2025, while the Senate has spent much of 2026 working through its own market structure framework. The Senate Banking Committee advanced its version of the Clarity Act in May, while the Senate Agriculture Committee has separately advanced legislation addressing the CFTC's role in overseeing digital asset markets. Getting legislation across the finish line remains difficult. Senate action has been pushed into September as lawmakers continue negotiating several disputed provisions. Those include ethics restrictions involving government officials' crypto interests, anti-money-laundering protections, and rules involving stablecoin rewards. Any procedural vote would also need enough support to clear the Senate's 60-vote threshold. ## Reading the Market The clearest signal from the market is the difference between expectations for 2026 and 2027. Traders assign just a 16% probability to qualifying legislation becoming law before Nov. 1 and 20% before the end of the year. Extend the window through June 2027, however, and the probability rises to 57%. Expectations have also strengthened recently. The July 2027 contract has moved sharply higher in late August after spending much of the month below its current level. That movement has come amid renewed pressure to advance crypto legislation. President Donald Trump called on Congress last week to pass a version of the Clarity Act, while Senate Banking Chairman Tim Scott has continued pushing for Senate action. The crypto industry's political efforts are also intensifying ahead of the midterms. Coinbase-backed Stand With Crypto announced endorsements of 32 House incumbents this week, targeting lawmakers who supported the Clarity Act. ## What to Watch September should provide the next major test. The immediate question is whether Senate negotiations can produce enough agreement to move market structure legislation forward. The remaining disputes have kept the process from advancing quickly, and any successful path will require sufficient bipartisan support to overcome procedural hurdles. The approaching midterms also put pressure on the legislative calendar. Kalshi traders currently see little chance of qualifying legislation becoming law before voters head to the polls, making any progress in September particularly relevant to the shorter-dated contracts. If Congress cannot finish the process this year, attention will shift toward whether lawmakers can carry the effort into 2027\. Traders currently see the chances of comprehensive crypto legislation becoming law improving substantially once the timeline extends into 2027. Looking to get started? Compare the [best prediction market platforms](https://www.predictmatters.com/best-prediction-market-platforms/) and learn how to choose the right option. ## Sign up for PredictMatters Get up to speed on what matters in prediction markets. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.