Cowboys vs. Giants: Prediction Markets Favor Dallas as Harbaugh Era Begins on SNF

Sunday Night Football brings no shortage of storylines. The Cowboys open a season they hope ends a two-year postseason drought, while John Harbaugh makes his Giants debut with Jaxson Dart entering Year 2.

Market Snapshot

• Dallas Cowboys: 60%
• New York Giants: 40%
• Dallas -3.5 points: 46%
• Over 47.5 total points: 50%
• Volume: $2.28M+
• Date: Sunday, Sept. 13
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
• Broadcast: NBC
• Prediction market prices as of approximately 7:23 a.m. ET on Sept. 13.

Quick Brief

Dallas has occupied the favorite's side of this market for virtually the entire offseason. With kickoff approaching, traders are giving the Cowboys a 60% chance of opening the season with a win.

The benchmark contracts provide a little more context: Dallas is favored by 3.5 points, while the game total sits at 47.5, pointing to a competitive matchup with plenty of scoring potential.

Dallas has missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons after going 7–10 in 2024 and 7–9–1 last year. New York hasn't been to the postseason since 2022.

Recent history has favored Dallas. The Cowboys have won 16 of the past 18 meetings, although the Giants snapped their recent skid with a 34–17 victory in last season's finale.

Dallas enters 2026 with bigger expectations

Back-to-back seven-win seasons aren't what Dallas had in mind after three consecutive 12-win campaigns from 2021 through 2023.

Dak Prescott has been explicit about the goal for 2026, calling a return to the playoffs the “minimum” after the Cowboys went 14–19–1 over the past two seasons.

There are reasons for renewed optimism. Prescott returns after throwing for 4,552 yards and 30 touchdowns last season. Dallas has overhauled a defense that struggled badly in 2025. 

Rookie Caleb Downs joins a revamped unit now coordinated by Christian Parker, while Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark give the Cowboys a new look in the middle of the defensive front.

Prediction markets aren't treating Dallas as an overwhelming favorite Sunday, but the 60% price does establish the Cowboys as the more likely winner entering a season in which the pressure has ratcheted up.

The John Harbaugh era begins in New York

The Giants are starting over with one of the NFL's most accomplished coaches.

Harbaugh takes over after 18 seasons in Baltimore, where the Ravens reached the postseason 12 times and won Super Bowl XLVII. During his tenure, the club also went 12–6 in season openers, including 8–1 at home.

His first Giants team will be built around a promising young core on offense. Dart enters his second season after leading all NFL rookies with 24 total touchdowns in 2025. Talented wideout Malik Nabers is working his way back from a knee injury. Nabers practiced fully throughout the week but carries a questionable designation into Sunday.

New York also gets its first real look at a full sideline revamp, with former Bears head coach Matt Nagy running the offense and Dennard Wilson coordinating the defense.

For a Giants franchise that has reached the playoffs only twice since its Super Bowl-winning 2011 season, Sunday represents the beginning of another attempt to turn the page.

A rivalry Dallas has dominated

Recent history strongly favors the Cowboys.

Dallas has won 16 of the past 18 meetings with New York and owns a 78–48–2 advantage in the all-time series. The Cowboys have been particularly effective when these teams meet to begin a season: Dallas has won 11 of their previous 12 season-opening matchups.

Last year finally provided some resistance. Dallas escaped with a 40–37 overtime victory in Week 2 before New York answered with a 34–17 win at MetLife Stadium in the regular-season finale. Dart accounted for 262 total yards and two touchdown passes in that Giants victory.

Sunday will be the ninth time the Cowboys and Giants have opened a season against each other in primetime, more than any other pair of NFL teams.

There’s plenty of intrigue beyond the 60–40 winner market. Dallas owns the recent rivalry, but New York enters with a new coach and a young quarterback looking to make a statement at home under the primetime lights.

What to Watch

• Dallas' postseason push starts here: The Cowboys have missed January football two years running. A team entering 2026 with larger ambitions begins against a divisional opponent it has dominated recently.
• Harbaugh's Giants debut: Eighteen seasons in Baltimore give way to a new chapter in New York, beginning under the Sunday night lights.
• Jaxson Dart in Year 2: Dart finished his rookie season showing plenty of promise, including a win over Dallas, and now gets the Cowboys in Week 1.
• Malik Nabers' status: The Giants' top receiver practiced fully all week but is officially questionable with a knee injury.
• Dallas' rebuilt defense: Parker's new scheme and a substantially changed defensive front get their first meaningful test against Dart and the Giants.

For more on how these contracts work throughout the season, see our guide to football prediction markets.