Bitcoin Price Prediction: Markets Brace for Fed After CLARITY Act Setback

Bitcoin enters one of the week's biggest macro events already under pressure after absorbing a major crypto-policy setback.

The cryptocurrency was trading around $75,800 early Wednesday after sliding following the Senate's failed attempt to advance major crypto legislation. Now attention turns to the Federal Reserve, where traders overwhelmingly expect the first interest-rate increase since 2023.

Prediction markets offer another way to measure the uncertainty: where Bitcoin will be trading by Friday afternoon, roughly 51 hours after the Fed announces its decision.

Market Snapshot

• Bitcoin spot price: ~$75,827
• $75,000 or above Friday: 59%
• $75,500 or above: 48%
• $76,000 or above: 43%
• $77,000 or above: 30%
• $78,000 or above: 22%
• $80,000 or above: 8%
• Volume: $1.21M+
• Prediction market prices as of 5:21 a.m. ET on Sept. 16, 2026.

Quick Brief

Bitcoin traders are heading into the Fed decision after an unusually eventful 24 hours.

Bitcoin traded above $82,000 earlier this month and was around $77,600 on Monday. It fell sharply Tuesday after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, briefly dropping below $75,000 before recovering some ground.

On Kalshi, the market for Bitcoin's price at 5 p.m. ET Friday now puts the $75,500 threshold near a coin flip at 48%. A finish of at least $76,000 is priced at 43%, while $77,000 stands at 30%.

The upside probabilities fall quickly from there. Traders give Bitcoin a 22% chance of reaching or exceeding $78,000 at the Friday settlement and only an 8% chance of finishing at $80,000 or higher.

That leaves the market centered close to Bitcoin's current price heading into an event capable of changing the picture quickly.

Bitcoin faces another major catalyst

The Fed decision arrives one day after another important event for crypto markets.

The Senate voted Tuesday on advancing the CLARITY Act, legislation designed to establish a federal regulatory framework for digital assets. The measure failed to reach the 60 votes required to advance, dealing a setback to legislation that had been a major priority for the crypto industry. Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks fell following the vote.

That decline came on top of growing expectations for tighter monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in July, although three FOMC members dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase. Since then, inflation data have strengthened the case for a hike. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier, while core prices increased 0.3% during the month.

By Wednesday morning, financial markets were pricing roughly a 93% probability that the Fed would raise rates by 25 basis points.

What comes after the Fed decision?

With a quarter-point hike heavily anticipated, traders will also be watching what the Fed says about the path ahead.

Wednesday's meeting includes a new Summary of Economic Projections, giving investors an updated look at policymakers' expectations for inflation, economic growth, unemployment, and interest rates. Chair Kevin Warsh's 2:30 p.m. press conference will provide another opportunity for markets to assess how the Fed views the balance of risks.

That makes the Friday Bitcoin market particularly useful.

The contract does not ask traders to predict Bitcoin's immediate reaction at 2:01 p.m. Wednesday. Settlement comes at 5 p.m. Friday, giving markets more than two days to absorb the rate decision, updated projections, Warsh's comments, and the broader reaction across stocks, bonds, currencies, and crypto.

At the current prices, traders are not pricing an immediate return to Bitcoin's recent highs as the central outcome, but they also aren’t pricing a decisive collapse from current levels.

What to Watch

• The Fed decision: A quarter-point increase is overwhelmingly expected. A surprise hold or a larger increase would give markets something substantially different to digest.
• Warsh's message: With the immediate decision heavily priced, guidance about whether additional rate increases may follow could become the more important signal.
• $75,500: The Friday contract prices this threshold almost exactly at even odds, making it the clearest dividing line on the current board.
• A return toward $80,000: Bitcoin was above $82,000 earlier this month, but the Friday market currently gives BTC only an 8% chance of finishing at $80,000 or higher.
• The post-CLARITY fallout: Tuesday's legislative setback contributed to Bitcoin's decline before the Fed even entered the picture. How much of that selling carries into Wednesday could shape the starting point for the post-Fed move.

Bitcoin has already absorbed one significant shock this week. By Friday afternoon, the market will have a much clearer answer about how it handled the next one.

Want to compare where prediction markets are available and how the leading options differ? Our best prediction market platforms guide covers the major platforms, key differences, and what to know before getting started.