NFL MVP Prediction Market: Josh Allen Leads as Caleb Williams Surges

The first week of the NFL season has already reshaped the MVP board.

Josh Allen remains the favorite after leading Buffalo to a dramatic opening win, but Caleb Williams made the biggest move among the leading contenders. Lamar Jackson is close behind, while several preseason favorites have moved in the opposite direction.

Market Snapshot

• Josh Allen: 15%
• Caleb Williams: 13%
• Lamar Jackson: 12%
• Joe Burrow: 9%
• Patrick Mahomes: 8%
• Volume: $19.2M+
• Prediction market prices as of 8:09 a.m. ET on Sept. 15, 2026.

Quick Brief

The NFL MVP race remains wide open, but Week 1 provided traders with their first meaningful evidence.

Allen leads the market at 15% after Buffalo's 36-31 road win over Houston, with Williams now just two points behind him at 13%. Jackson sits at 12%, leaving three quarterbacks separated by only three percentage points at the top of the board.

The movement is just as notable as the prices. On Kalshi, Williams has climbed seven points, Allen four, and Jackson two. Joe Burrow has slipped two points to 9%, while Patrick Mahomes rounds out the top five at 8% after Kansas City's Monday night win over Denver.

It is still an early market, but after months of projecting what the 2026 MVP race might look like, the Week 1 results have started to shift the landscape. 

Caleb Williams makes the biggest Week 1 move

No contender improved his market position more dramatically than Williams.

The third-year Bears quarterback accounted for 334 total yards and four touchdowns in Chicago's 59-37 win over Carolina. He completed 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, added 65 yards and two scores on the ground, and finished with a 124.1 passer rating. Chicago's 59 points set a franchise record for a season opener.

That performance moved Williams from the edge of the leading group directly behind Allen.

Allen provided his own opening statement in Houston. The Bills quarterback threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns and ran for two more scores in a 36-31 victory over the Texans. With Buffalo trailing by one late in the fourth quarter, Allen directed a 96-yard drive that ended with the go-ahead touchdown pass to Joshua Palmer.

Jackson also strengthened his position. The two-time MVP threw for 324 yards and added 40 on the ground as Baltimore opened its season with a 41-23 win over Indianapolis.

The result is an unusually tight early leaderboard: Allen has retained the top spot, but neither Williams nor Jackson has allowed him much separation.

Other NFL MVP contenders to watch

The top five do not tell the entire story.

Trevor Lawrence has climbed three points to 7%, putting him just behind Mahomes. Lawrence completed 18 of 23 passes for 245 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in Jacksonville's 34-10 win over Cleveland. His 150.6 passer rating was the strongest of any of the prominent MVP contenders in Week 1.

Brock Purdy sits at 6% after rising one point. Purdy threw three touchdown passes as San Francisco beat the Rams 27-7 in Melbourne, giving the 49ers an early divisional win against the defending MVP Matthew Stafford.

There has also been movement in the other direction. Drake Maye has fallen three points to 5%, Dak Prescott four points to 3%, and Justin Herbert five points to 4% after each opened the season with a loss. Stafford, last season's MVP, has dropped five points to 2% following the Rams' loss to San Francisco.

The shifts illustrate how quickly an award market can react early in the season. One game can meaningfully change the market's assessment, but 16 regular-season games remain for the current hierarchy to change again.

What to Watch

• Can Williams sustain the surge? One explosive game pushed him within two points of the market leader. Chicago's offense now has to show that Week 1 was more than an opening-week eruption.
• Allen's early advantage: The favorite delivered immediately against Houston and remains atop the board. Buffalo hosts Detroit on Thursday night, giving Allen the first opportunity among the leaders to add another data point.
• Lawrence enters the conversation: Jacksonville's dominant opener moved Lawrence to 7%, close enough that another strong performance could push him into the leading group.
• The rebound candidates: Burrow remains fourth despite slipping, while Maye, Herbert, Prescott, and Stafford all have considerably more ground to recover after Week 1.
• Don't overread September: MVP is a season-long award. Early performances can dramatically reprice the board, but the race will ultimately be shaped by sustained individual production, team success, and another four months of football.

Week 1 did not settle the NFL MVP race, but it did help make the chase considerably more interesting.

Want a broader look at how football markets work throughout the season? Our football prediction markets guide covers the major markets, what moves prices, and what to know as the season unfolds.