Raiders vs. 49ers Prediction Market Odds: Can Las Vegas Challenge the Super Bowl Favorite?
The 49ers return from their bye week looking to get back in the win column, while the Raiders aim to build on a comeback victory. Here's what the prediction markets expect from Sunday's matchup.
The San Francisco 49ers (6-1) host the Las Vegas Raiders (4-4) on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox from Levi's Stadium.
San Francisco enters as a commanding favorite on Kalshi, returning from its bye off a loss to Atlanta. That setback aside, San Francisco enters the second half of its campaign as the Super Bowl favorite on Kalshi.
Las Vegas arrives after a 38-33 victory over the Jets and faces a stiff test to keep that momentum going. However, injuries on the 49ers side open the possibility of a closer than expected matchup.
Market Snapshot: Raiders vs. 49ers
- Game: Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
- Date: Sunday, November 8, 2026
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. EST
- Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
- TV: FOX
- Kalshi winner market: 49ers 79% | Raiders 21%
- Trading volume: $2.31 million
Market prices captured November 7, 2026 at 6:49 a.m. ET.
Raiders vs. 49ers Matchup Preview
| 2026 Season Statistics | Raiders | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4–4 | 6–1 |
| Points scored/game | 27.6 | 28.1 |
| Points allowed/game | 28.8 | 19.9 |
| Passing yards/game | 265.1 | 244.0 |
| Rushing yards/game | 77.2 | 127.4 |
| Passing yards allowed/game | 235.5 | 210.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed/game | 146.4 | 89.0 |
San Francisco's defense allows fewer than 20 points per game. The Raiders surrender 146.4 yards per game on the ground, a potential boost for the 49ers rushing attack with Christian McCaffrey cleared to play after the bye. Quarterback Brock Purdy has thrown for 1,748 yards and 15 touchdowns, but he'll be without receivers Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, and Christian Kirk, leaving George Kittle and playmakers further down the depth chart to handle the load.
Las Vegas brings one of the league’s most productive passing attacks led by Kirk Cousins, who has thrown for 2,124 yards and 19 touchdowns. Tight end Brock Bowers has racked up 547 receiving yards and five scores, serving as the top target for San Francisco's defense to contend with. The Las Vegas ground game averages just 77.2 yards per contest, an imbalance that could leave Cousins facing considerable pressure from one of the league’s top defenses.
Raiders vs. 49ers Prediction Market Prices
| Prediction Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Point spread | 49ers win by 10+ | 50% |
| Game total | Over 51.5 points | 50% |
| Passing touchdowns | Brock Purdy 2+ | 72% |
| Passing touchdowns | Kirk Cousins 2+ | 52% |
| Rushing yards | Christian McCaffrey 60+ | 55% |
| Receiving yards | Brock Bowers 70+ | 54% |
| Anytime touchdown | Christian McCaffrey | 70% |
| Anytime touchdown | Brock Bowers | 44% |
San Francisco is heavily favored to win, but a double-digit margin is far less certain. The game total also points toward a potentially high-scoring contest, with the market split on whether the teams will combine for more than 51.5 points. Meanwhile, player markets suggest San Francisco's passing game could remain productive despite its depleted receiving corps.
Prices lean strongly toward Purdy throwing multiple touchdowns, while McCaffrey remains a prominent scoring threat. Las Vegas has a different challenge: Cousins has produced 19 touchdown passes this season, but the Raiders' limited rushing attack could put more responsibility on him and Bowers to generate offense against a stout defense.
What Matters for Raiders vs. 49ers?
Three factors could determine whether San Francisco delivers the comfortable victory implied by its outright market price:
- The rushing mismatch: Las Vegas allows 146.4 rushing yards per game, creating an opportunity for McCaffrey and the 49ers to control possession against a defense that has struggled to stop the run.
- San Francisco's receiving depth: With Evans, Samuel, and Kirk sidelined, Purdy must find production from a reshuffled receiving group. Kittle and McCaffrey could become even more important in sustaining the passing game.
- Las Vegas' one-dimensional offense: Cousins and Bowers give the Raiders a credible passing threat, but an offense averaging only 77.2 rushing yards faces a difficult assignment against a San Francisco defense allowing 89.0.
The 49ers enter with the stronger record, defense, and rushing attack, but the Raiders’ passing attack makes them dangerous if the game turns into a back and forth affair. For traders, a key question is whether San Francisco can turn those advantages into a decisive victory despite its receiving injuries, or whether Cousins and the Raiders can keep the game competitive.
