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Politics

Prediction market coverage of elections, Congress, candidates, legislation, government actions, and other political outcomes in the U.S. and beyond.

Blue Wave or Blue Tsunami? What Prediction Markets Say About the 2026 Midterms

Blue Wave or Blue Tsunami? What Prediction Markets Say About the 2026 Midterms

With the 2026 midterms just two weeks away, Democrats are eyeing major gains in Congress. But will November deliver a narrow shift in power or a sweeping victory? Two Kalshi prediction markets reveal how traders are sizing up the possibilities.

2026 Senate Control Prediction Market: Democrats Surge With Four Weeks to Go

2026 Senate Control Prediction Market: Democrats Surge With Four Weeks to Go

Democrats have opened their largest prediction-market advantage of the 2026 cycle in the race for Senate control, with four weeks remaining until Election Day.

Will the CLARITY Act Become Law? Prediction Markets Jump Before Key Senate Vote

Will the CLARITY Act Become Law? Prediction Markets Jump Before Key Senate Vote

Prediction markets have sharply raised the chances of crypto market structure legislation becoming law as the CLARITY Act approaches a critical Senate vote.

How Many Senate Seats Will Democrats Hold After the Midterms? What Prediction Markets Expect

How Many Senate Seats Will Democrats Hold After the Midterms? What Prediction Markets Expect

Prediction markets are clustering around one of the central questions of the 2026 midterms: how Senate seats will be allocated along party lines.

How Many House Seats Will Republicans Hold After the Midterms? What Prediction Markets Expect

How Many House Seats Will Republicans Hold After the Midterms? What Prediction Markets Expect

Prediction market traders currently favor Democrats to retake the House this November. But the Republican seat-count market offers a more revealing question: If Republicans lose control, how much ground could they actually give up?

Political Prediction Markets: How They Work and What to Know

Political Prediction Markets: How They Work and What to Know

Learn how political prediction markets work, what you can trade, what moves prices, and how to interpret market probabilities.

Who Will Control the House? Prediction Markets Favor Democrats in 2026

Who Will Control the House? Prediction Markets Favor Democrats in 2026

Prediction markets give Democrats a commanding advantage in the race for House control, unlike the battle for the Senate.