Dancing With the Stars Semifinals: Prediction Market Odds & Preview

The race for the Dancing With the Stars Mirrorball Trophy is entering its final stretch, with six couples remaining after a surprising Grammy Night elimination.

Ezra Frech continues to lead the Kalshi prediction market, although Harry Shum Jr. has strengthened his position as the leading challenger and Connor Wood has made a notable move up the standings.

With the semifinals set for Tuesday, November 17, here's how the latest prediction market prices compare, what Grammy Night revealed, and what's at stake heading into the final two episodes.

Market Snapshot: DWTS Season 35

• Market: Who will win Dancing With the Stars Season 35?
• Current favorite: Ezra Frech (57%)
• Leading challengers: Harry Shum Jr. (21%), Connor Wood (16%), Amber Glenn (10%), Maura Higgins (2%), and Tatyana Ali (2%).
• Trading volume: $8.61 million.
• Next episode: Semifinals - Tuesday, November 17, at 8 p.m. ET on ABC and Disney+.
• Season finale: Tuesday, November 24, 2026.

Market prices observed November 11, 2026, at 10:56 a.m. ET. Prices are subject to change.

Latest DWTS Prediction Market Odds: Frech Leads as Wood Gains Ground

Frech remains the clear market leader, but the competition behind him has become more interesting. Shum Jr. continues to establish himself as the strongest challenger, while Wood has moved ahead of Glenn despite a less impressive showing on the latest judges' leaderboard.

• Ezra Frech - 57%: Little has changed at the top. Frech was at 58% in last week's Brief and retains a substantial lead despite finishing tied for the lowest judges' score on Grammy Night.
• Harry Shum Jr. - 21%: Up slightly from 20% last week, Shum Jr. remains the closest challenger. His latest first-place finish follows consecutive perfect individual scores on Horror Movie Night and Disney Night.
• Connor Wood - 16%: The biggest move among the remaining contestants. Wood has climbed from 6% last week to third place, even after finishing Grammy Night tied at the bottom of the leaderboard.
• Amber Glenn - 10%: Down from 14%, Glenn has slipped behind Wood in the market despite finishing tied for second in Grammy Night's final standings.
• Maura Higgins and Tatyana Ali - 2% each: Both remain long shots heading into the semifinals. Higgins has survived another elimination, while Ali advanced despite losing her Grammy Night dance-off.

The contrast between Wood and Glenn is particularly notable. Glenn outscored Wood on Grammy Night, yet their market positions have moved in opposite directions, another example of how expectations about the eventual winner extend beyond the judges' latest scores.

DWTS Grammy Night Recap: A Surprise Elimination Changes the Field

Grammy Night narrowed the competition from seven couples to six, with another strong performance from Shum Jr. and a surprising departure that underscored the importance of viewer voting.

• Shum Jr. topped the leaderboard with 31 points, including two bonus points from his dance-off immunity. His individual salsa earned 29/30.
• Glenn and Jenna Dewan tied for second with 30 points each, including two bonus points from their respective dance-off victories.
• Higgins finished with 29 points, winning her dance-off against Wood after earning 27/30 for her individual routine.
• Frech, Wood, and Ali finished tied at 27 points, placing them at the bottom of the final judges' leaderboard.
• Dewan was eliminated despite her strong scores. She had also earned a perfect individual score on Disney Night, making her departure one of the season's more surprising results.

Dewan's elimination is a reminder that judges' scores alone cannot guarantee advancement. Her departure leaves six contestants with different combinations of recent performance, audience support, and prediction market expectations heading into the semifinals.

DWTS Semifinals Preview: What to Watch on November 17

The remaining six couples are now one episode away from the November 24 finale, with each expected to perform both a ballroom and Latin routine in the semifinals. Frech remains the favorite, but the latest results and market movement raise several questions about the final stretch.

• Can Shum Jr. turn strong performances into a closer market race? He has finished at or near the top of the leaderboard for three consecutive episodes, but Frech still holds a substantial advantage in the winner market.
• Will Frech regain his position among the top scorers? His Grammy Night performance earned 27 points, below Shum Jr. and Glenn. The semifinals offer an opportunity to reinforce his standing as the competition's market leader.
• Can Wood justify his market surge? His rise to third place is one of the week's biggest developments, but his latest judges' score provides little explanation for that momentum.
• Could Glenn close the gap? She remains among the stronger recent performers, yet her winner probability has declined. Another high-scoring routine could help distinguish her from the other challengers.
• Who will survive the semifinals? Dewan's elimination demonstrated that even strong judges' scores offer no guarantee. With the finale approaching, audience support remains an important part of the equation.

The market continues to favor Frech, but the gap between recent performances and winner probabilities is becoming harder to ignore. Shum Jr. has the strongest recent judging record, Wood has attracted fresh market interest, and Glenn remains competitive on the ballroom floor. The semifinals will determine who gets one final opportunity to challenge Frech for the Mirrorball Trophy.