Who Will Win Dancing With the Stars? Season 35 Prediction Market Prices

The full Dancing With the Stars Season 35 cast is set, and prediction markets have begun sorting through a 16-person field. Jenna Dewan holds the early lead, but two challengers sit just three percentage points behind her with the first performances still more than a week away.

Market Snapshot

• Jenna Dewan: 20%
• Amber Glenn: 17%
• Harry Shum Jr.: 17%
• Julia Stiles: 11%
• Ezra Frech: 9%
• Jackson Olson: 9%
• Connor Wood: 6%
• Maura Higgins: 6%
• Guillermo Rodriguez: 4%
• Tatyana Ali: 3%
• Volume: $91K+
• Season premiere: Sept. 15–16, 8 p.m. ET
• Watch: ABC and Disney+
• Prediction market prices as of 6:09 a.m. ET on Sept. 4, 2026.

Quick Brief

Dewan enters the preseason as the prediction market favorite, but her 20% probability leaves Dancing With the Stars without anything resembling a runaway leader.

Olympic figure skater Amber Glenn and actor Harry Shum Jr. are next at 17% apiece, followed by Julia Stiles at 11%. Paralympian Ezra Frech and Savannah Bananas entertainer Jackson Olson form the next tier at 9% each.

The market drops into single digits from there. Connor Wood and Maura Higgins are at 6%, Guillermo Rodriguez sits at 4%, and Tatyana Ali rounds out the top 10 at 3%.

Six other contestants complete the 16-person field: Conner Leavitt, Ciara Miller, Giada De Laurentiis, Sarah Jane Nader, Tyler Cameron, and Taylor Hanson. Each is currently priced at less than 3%.

The full cast and professional pairings were announced this week on Good Morning America. Season 35 begins with a two-night premiere Sept. 15 and 16 on ABC and Disney+, with episodes streaming on Hulu the following day.

The Early Market Favors Familiarity With Performance

The three early leaders enter the ballroom with very different resumes, but all have experience that could help explain their position near the top of the board.

Dewan, paired with Val Chmerkovskiy, has the most obvious dance background. She worked professionally as a dancer before becoming widely known for Step Up. Her previous experience has already become a storyline surrounding her participation. Dewan has emphasized that ballroom requires a different technique from the styles she knows.

Shum, paired with Jenna Johnson, also has substantial dance experience from projects including Glee and the Step Up films. Like Dewan, he has pushed back on the assumption that experience in other forms of dance automatically translates to ballroom and Latin styles.

Glenn brings a different type of movement background. The three-time U.S. figure skating champion helped Team USA win Olympic gold in the team event earlier this year and became the first U.S. woman to land three triple Axels at a single Olympic Games. She will compete alongside Pasha Pashkov.

Those backgrounds don't guarantee anything once the competition begins. Before the judges' scores and viewer votes give traders harder information to work with, the opening prices have established an early top tier. . 

The Field Is Still Wide Open

The more revealing number may be Dewan's 20% rather than her position in first place.

With the favorite carrying only about a one-in-five probability, most of the market remains distributed across the rest of the cast. 

The gap from Dewan to the two co-second choices is only three percentage points, while Stiles, Frech, and Olson remain within striking distance of the leaders.

There are interesting resumes deeper on the board, too. Stiles is closely associated with Save the Last Dance, although she says she stopped taking formal dance classes after making the 2001 film. 

Olson, meanwhile, performs with the Savannah Bananas, whose entertainment-heavy version of baseball incorporates choreographed dances and other routines.

The current board is best viewed as an opening assessment rather than an established hierarchy. Nobody has performed for the judges yet, and the season's viewer-voting dynamics have yet to enter the equation.

What Could Move the Market

• The opening performances. The first live routines will give traders their first direct look at how the contestants translate their existing skills, or lack of them, to the ballroom.
• Judges' scores. Carrie Ann Inaba, Bruno Tonioli, and Derek Hough return as the judging panel, providing another recurring information point once the competition begins.
• Viewer support. Dancing With the Stars isn't determined by technical ability alone. Audience voting can change the competitive picture, making popularity and the ability to build support over the season important alongside judges' scores.
• The crowded top tier. Dewan may be the favorite, but Glenn and Shum are only three points behind. With six contestants currently carrying probabilities of at least 9%, there is room for the market hierarchy to change quickly once the season starts.

The opening prices see Dewan as the contestant to beat, but only narrowly. With 16 celebrities, several experienced performers near the top, and no contestant above 20%, Season 35 begins with considerably more uncertainty than the word “favorite” might suggest.

New to prediction markets? Learn how prediction markets work and how market prices reflect changing expectations about future events.