Dancing With the Stars Prediction Market Shifts After Viral Hits Night

The Dancing With the Stars prediction market has a new leader after Week 2.

Ezra Frech climbed to 26% following Tuesday’s Viral Hits Night, moving ahead of Harry Shum Jr. and Maura Higgins. Frech tied for the night’s highest judges’ score, while several early contenders lost ground.

Market Snapshot

• Ezra Frech: 26%
• Harry Shum Jr.: 17%
• Maura Higgins: 17%
• Jenna Dewan: 14%
• Amber Glenn: 11%
• Volume: $2.96M+
• Finale: Nov. 24, 8 p.m. EST
• Prediction market prices on Kalshi as of 10:19 a.m. EDT Wednesday.

Quick Brief

Frech and professional partner Daniella Karagach scored 21 out of 30 for their cha-cha Tuesday, earning three 7s and tying Jenna Dewan and Amber Glenn for the highest score of the night.

It continued a strong start for the Paralympic gold medalist. Frech scored 20 for his tango during the premiere, giving him a season-high 41 points through two performances.

That consistency has translated to pricing on Kalshi. Frech’s price climbed 10 percentage points to 26%, giving him a nine-point advantage over Harry Shum Jr. and Maura Higgins.

Glenn was another notable riser Tuesday. The Olympic figure skater earned 21 points for her tango, tying Frech and Dewan atop the Week 2 leaderboard. Her price climbed three points to 11%.

Dewan remains ahead of Glenn at 14% after her 21-point jive improved on the 19 she received during the premiere.

The early market begins to separate

While Frech and Glenn gained ground, two of the early market leaders moved in the opposite direction.

Shum slipped four points to 17% after receiving an 18 for his Viennese waltz. He had scored 21 during the premiere, the highest mark among the male contestants.

Higgins also fell four points to 17% after scoring 19 for her cha-cha Tuesday. She entered the week among the market leaders after earning 21 points during the second night of the premiere.

That leaves five contestants priced in double digits, with a noticeable gap to the rest of the field. Connor Wood is next at 4%, while Jackson Olson and Julia Stiles sit at 3%.

Plenty of room to move

Despite Frech opening a lead, the winner market remains relatively unsettled. His 26% price leaves nearly three-quarters of the probability elsewhere on the board, with four other contestants still priced in double digits.

Judges' scores are also only part of the competition. Viewer voting helps determine which couples advance, meaning strong scores do not guarantee safety, and the leaderboard does not necessarily translate directly to the winner market.

Giada De Laurentiis became the latest contestant eliminated Tuesday after she and professional partner Alan Bersten received 12 points for their salsa. Thirteen couples remain heading into next week's Yacht Rock Night.

What to Watch

• Can Frech hold the early lead? He owns the highest cumulative judges’ score through two performances and now has the highest price in the winner market.
• Do Shum and Higgins rebound? Both remain tied for second at 17% despite losing ground after Tuesday’s performances.
• Does Glenn keep climbing? Her 21-point tango helped move her to 11%, making her one of the clearest risers behind Frech.
• What comes next? The competition returns Sept. 29 for Yacht Rock Night, giving the remaining 13 couples another chance to reshape an already volatile winner market.

For more on how these contracts work, see our guide to prediction markets.