Dancing With the Stars Prediction Market: Who Can Catch Ezra Frech?
Super Bowl Night delivered standout performances, another elimination, and fresh questions about who can challenge the frontrunner for the Season 35 Mirrorball Trophy.
The race for the Season 35 Dancing With the Stars Mirrorball Trophy is becoming increasingly lopsided, at least according to prediction market traders.
Paralympic champion Ezra Frech has built a commanding lead in Kalshi's winner market, separating himself from a field that includes Maura Higgins, Harry Shum Jr., and Amber Glenn. With six weeks remaining until the November 24 finale, the competition is far from settled, but traders have established a clear frontrunner.
Market Snapshot
Market prices as of October 14, 2026 at 9:56 a.m. ET.
Frech and Dewan Top Super Bowl Night
Tuesday's Super Bowl Night episode gave Frech another strong result to support his market position.
Dancing with professional partner Daniella Karagach, Frech earned 36 out of 40 for a salsa to Nelly's Hot in Herre. The performance received four scores of nine, tying Jenna Dewan and Val Chmerkovskiy's paso doble for the night's highest mark.
The tie highlights an interesting divide between judges' scores and market expectations. Dewan matched Frech on Tuesday, yet her 6% championship probability remains far below his 58%.
Frech also leads the season's cumulative judges' standings, but narrowly: 122 points compared with Dewan's 121. That makes his substantial prediction market advantage especially notable.
Who Can Challenge Frech?
Maura Higgins remains the market's second choice at 14%. She and partner Mark Ballas earned 33 points for their tango despite Higgins dealing with a neck injury that required attention following the performance. Her health and ability to maintain her performance level could become important in the coming weeks.
Harry Shum Jr. follows at 11% after also scoring 33 points. His samba drew mixed feedback, including criticism from Carrie Ann Inaba about technique and a lift during the routine.
Amber Glenn, priced at 9%, delivered one of Tuesday's strongest performances, scoring 34 points. Her showing placed her third on the judges' leaderboard, ahead of Higgins and Shum Jr.
The latest elimination also underscored the importance of audience support. Guillermo Rodriguez and Witney Carson exited after receiving the night's lowest score, 22 out of 40.
Contestants advance based on a combination of judges' scores and viewer votes, making the competition more complicated than a straightforward dance-performance ranking.
The Bottom Line
Frech's commanding market position reflects more than one successful performance. He has established himself near the top of the judges' standings while building a substantial advantage in championship expectations.
But Tuesday's results also showed that several competitors can match or approach his scores. Dewan tied him for first, Glenn continued improving, and Higgins and Shum Jr. remain firmly in the mix.
With the November 24 finale still six weeks away, the question is whether Frech can maintain his lead as the field narrows, or whether another contestant can turn strong performances and viewer support into a serious Mirrorball challenge.
For more on how markets like these work, see our guide to prediction markets.
