Heisman Prediction Market: Chambliss surges after Rebels drop Tigers

The Heisman market has a new leader.

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has climbed to 20% after a standout performance against LSU, moving ahead of Miami quarterback Darian Mensah at 15%. Several prominent contenders have moved backward, leaving a reshaped board entering Week 4.

Market Snapshot

• Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss: 20%
• Darian Mensah, Miami: 15%
• Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State: 9%
• Kamario Taylor, Mississippi State: 9%
• Arch Manning, Texas: 6%
• Volume: $24.56M+
• Prediction market prices on Kalshi as of 4:43 a.m. EDT Tuesday.

Quick Brief

Chambliss made the biggest move after leading Ole Miss to a 32–24 win over No. 7 LSU on Saturday.

The senior completed 33 of 48 passes for 363 yards and two touchdowns, then scored on a 14-yard run after LSU had erased a 24–7 halftime deficit and tied the game in the fourth quarter. The performance earned Chambliss SEC Offensive Player of the Week honors.

Chambliss has now thrown for 924 yards through three games, averaging an SEC-leading 308 yards per game. More importantly for the early Heisman conversation, Ole Miss is 3–0 after consecutive wins over Louisville, Charlotte, and LSU.

His prediction market price jumped 13 percentage points following Week 3, putting him alone atop the board.

Mensah remains close behind

Chambliss may have taken the lead, but Mensah continues to build his own early case.

The Miami quarterback completed 30 of 34 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns in Friday's 33–20 win over Wake Forest. He opened the game with 24 consecutive completions and extended a streak from the previous week to 35 straight, setting ACC records for both single-game and multi-game consecutive completions.

Through three games, Mensah has completed 71 of 79 passes for 873 yards, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Miami is 3–0, and his 89.9% completion rate leads the FBS.

Despite those numbers, Mensah slipped two points to 15% as Chambliss moved past him.

The rest of the board remains considerably tighter.

Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith sits at 9% after catching five passes for 85 yards in a 59–3 win over Kent State. Smith also became Ohio State's career leader in receiving yards during the victory.

Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor has climbed to 9%, while Texas quarterback Arch Manning has fallen to 6%. Manning entered Week 3 among the leading contenders after Texas' comeback victory over Ohio State, but his market price has now dropped four points.

CJ Carr has also moved backward, falling five points to 5% and outside the current top five.

What to Watch

• Chambliss gets another SEC test. Ole Miss travels to No. 21 Florida on Saturday, giving the new market leader another opportunity against a ranked opponent.
• Mensah has a chance to keep applying pressure. Miami hosts Central Michigan after Mensah's record-setting performance at Wake Forest.
• The second tier remains unsettled. Smith and Taylor are tied at 9%, with several contenders still within striking distance this early in the season.
• Watch the volatility. Chambliss gained 13 points in one week while Manning and Carr moved backward, showing how quickly one September weekend can reshape the board.

For more on the broader college football picture, see our latest look at the college football national championship prediction market.