Next James Bond: What Prediction Markets Are Pricing
The search for the next James Bond may be narrowing, and prediction markets are pricing an increasingly tight race among three actors to become the next 007.
Market Snapshot
- Callum Turner: 29%
- Jack Barton: 27%
- Jack Lowden: 26%
- Jack O’Connell: 14%
- Jacob Elordi: 11%
- Volume: $1.8M+
- Closes: Upon official casting or Jan. 1, 2030
- Outcome: Verified from Variety.
- Prices and trading volume as of 7:19 a.m. ET, Aug. 28, 2026.
Quick Brief
The long-running search for Daniel Craig’s successor is drawing fresh attention following reports that the casting process is moving toward another round of screen tests.
Jack Barton, Callum Turner, and Jack Lowden are among the actors reportedly in the mix, along with several other names. Amazon MGM Studios has not confirmed a shortlist or publicly identified a favorite, saying only that the search for the next Bond is underway.
Prediction markets are considerably less reserved. Turner currently leads at 29%, but Barton sits just behind at 27% and Lowden at 26%. More than $1.85 million has been traded on who will land the role.
The Big Picture
Casting the next Bond represents one of the biggest decisions facing the franchise since Craig ended his five-film run with No Time to Die in 2021.
Amazon MGM is now overseeing the next chapter, with Denis Villeneuve directing, Amy Pascal and David Heyman producing, and Peaky Blinders creator Steven Knight writing the screenplay. The studio confirmed in May that the Bond search was underway but said it would not discuss specific details during the casting process.
That silence has left plenty of room for speculation.
Recent reports have put Barton, Turner, and Lowden among the actors expected to screen-test for the role. Barton, a less established name than many of the other reported contenders, has received particular attention after emerging as a surprise candidate.
Reading the Market
Traders have yet to settle around a clear favorite. Turner leads at 29%, but Barton at 27% and Lowden at 26% are right behind.
A noticeable gap separates them from the rest of the board. Jack O’Connell is the closest challenger at 14%, followed by Jacob Elordi at 11%. Every other actor currently carries a single-digit probability.
The leaderboard has also been fluid. Barton was priced at 34% as recently as Thursday, ahead of Turner at 32% and Lowden at 25%. The market has compressed considerably, underscoring how unsettled the race remains as casting reports continue to emerge.
What to Watch
- The screen tests: Several reported contenders are expected to undergo screen tests, providing a potential source of new information and speculation around the casting race.
- The top three: Turner, Barton, and Lowden are separated by just three points, leaving plenty of room for the market leader to continue shifting.
- The newcomer factor: Barton’s emergence has already reshaped the market. Whether the relatively lesser-known actor remains among the leaders will be worth watching as the process advances.
- Official word: Amazon MGM has kept specific casting details private. Until the studio announces its choice, reports about individual contenders remain just that: reports.
New to prediction markets? Read our complete guide to prediction markets and how they work.