NFL MVP Prediction Market: Josh Allen Surges Ahead After Week 2
Josh Allen has opened an early lead in the NFL MVP prediction market after accounting for nine touchdowns during Buffalo's 2–0 start.
Two weeks into the NFL season, the MVP market already has a clear leader.
Josh Allen has climbed to 28%, separating from a group of contenders sitting at 10% or below. His move follows another dominant performance Thursday night, when Allen accounted for five touchdowns as Buffalo beat Detroit 41–31.
Market Snapshot
- Josh Allen: 28%
- Brock Purdy: 10%
- Joe Burrow: 10%
- Patrick Mahomes: 10%
- Lamar Jackson: 8%
- Volume: $22.74M+
- Award announced: Feb. 11, 2027
- Prediction market prices on Kalshi as of 4:43 a.m. EDT Tuesday.
Quick Brief
Allen has made the strongest early impression on the market after leading Buffalo to wins over Houston and Detroit.
He threw for 334 yards and accounted for four touchdowns in a 36–31 Week 1 win over Houston. Four days later, Allen threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 69 yards and two more scores against Detroit. Through two games, he has 582 passing yards, five passing touchdowns, four rushing touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Buffalo has scored 77 points during its 2–0 start, including touchdowns on five of its first six possessions against Detroit.
The result is the first meaningful separation on the MVP board. Allen has gained 12 percentage points, while no other candidate is currently above 10%.
Who is chasing Josh Allen?
The next tier remains crowded.
Brock Purdy has climbed to 10% after San Francisco improved to 2–0 with a 35–13 win over Miami. Purdy completed 20 of 22 passes for 287 yards and two touchdowns and added 30 rushing yards and another score.
Joe Burrow also sits at 10% with Cincinnati off to a 2–0 start. Burrow threw for 207 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 20–6 win over Houston, with both scores going to Ja'Marr Chase.
Patrick Mahomes rounds out the group at 10% after Kansas City moved to 2–0 with a 33–30 overtime win over Indianapolis. Mahomes threw for 382 yards and three touchdowns Sunday night.
Not every early contender moved in the same direction.
Lamar Jackson slipped to 8% after Baltimore lost 24–17 to New Orleans. The Ravens led 14–6 at halftime but scored only three points after the break, and Jackson was intercepted on Baltimore's final possession.
Caleb Williams fell to 5% after Chicago managed only three points in a 9–3 loss to Minnesota. Williams also left the game in the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury.
What to Watch
- Can Allen maintain the gap? Buffalo is 2–0, and Allen has accounted for nine touchdowns without throwing an interception.
- Does Purdy keep climbing? San Francisco is also unbeaten, and Purdy's near-perfect passing performance against Miami moved him into the 10% group.
- Which 10% contender separates next? Purdy, Burrow, and Mahomes currently share the same price, leaving a crowded second tier behind Allen.
- How quickly can the board change? Jackson and Williams both moved backward after Week 2, illustrating how volatile an award market can be this early in the season.
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