US Open Men's Prediction Market: Odds and Favorites for 2026

Market Snapshot

• Carlos Alcaraz: 27%
• Alexander Zverev: 22%
• Novak Djokovic: 9%
• Arthur Fils: 8%
• Taylor Fritz: 7%
• Ben Shelton: 7%
• Rafael Jodar: 6%
• Felix Auger-Aliassime: 4%
• Volume: $10.12 million+
• Main draw: Aug. 30-Sept. 13, 2026
• Men's final: Sept. 13
• Broadcast: ESPN, ESPN2, ABC, ESPN Deportes, and the ESPN App
• Prediction market prices and volume as of approximately 8:55 a.m. ET on Aug. 30, 2026.

Quick Brief

The men's draw looks much different without the world's top-ranked player.

Jannik Sinner withdrew from the US Open because of a right knee injury after compiling a 44-3 record with six titles this season. He won Wimbledon in July, captured the US Open in 2024, and finished runner-up to Alcaraz in New York last year.

His absence leaves Alcaraz and Zverev atop the prediction market, but neither has separated from the field. Alcaraz leads at 27%, followed by Zverev at 22%. The next tier starts with Djokovic at 9%, while six other players are trading between 4% and 8%.

That leaves traders pricing a tournament with two clear favorites, but plenty of uncertainty behind them.

The Big Picture

Alcaraz returns to New York as the defending champion after four months away from singles competition.

The 23-year-old has not played a singles tournament since injuring his right wrist in Barcelona in April. Before the injury, Alcaraz opened 2026 with a 22-3 record and won the Australian Open, becoming the youngest man in the Open Era to complete the career Grand Slam.

His history at Flushing Meadows helps explain the market's confidence. Alcaraz owns a 24-3 career record at the US Open, winning titles in 2022 and 2025. Last year, he defeated Djokovic in the semifinals before beating Sinner in four sets for the championship.

Zverev enters with a different kind of momentum. The current world No. 2 broke through for his first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros in June, then reached the Wimbledon final before losing to Sinner. He also knows what a deep run in New York looks like: Zverev reached the US Open final in 2020 and owns a 32-11 career record at the tournament.

Reading the Men's Field

The market drops sharply after Alcaraz and Zverev, but several contenders arrive in New York with strong recent form or a history of deep Grand Slam runs.

• Novak Djokovic (9%): Remains the most accomplished player in the field. The 24-time major champion won his most recent Grand Slam at the 2023 US Open and reached the semifinals here last year before falling to Alcaraz. In 2026, the 39-year-old reached the Australian Open final and Wimbledon semifinals.
• Arthur Fils (8%): Arrives with perhaps the hottest recent result among the chasing pack. The Frenchman won his first Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati last week, defeating Frances Tiafoe in the final. That followed a season that also included a title in Barcelona after returning from an extended injury layoff.
• Taylor Fritz (7%): Has already shown he can make a run deep into the second week in New York. The American reached the US Open final in 2024 and enters this year's tournament after winning Washington earlier this month.
• Ben Shelton (7%): Also brings recent hard-court form. He successfully defended his Canadian Masters title in Montreal without dropping a set and has won four titles this season. Shelton reached the US Open semifinals in 2023.
• Rafael Jodar (6%): Is the breakout name on the board. The 19-year-old has climbed to No. 13 in the world after starting the season well outside the sport's elite. He owns a 36-13 record in 2026, reached the Washington final and Montreal semifinals this summer, and advanced to the Roland Garros quarterfinals earlier this year.
• Felix Auger-Aliassime (4%): Enters as the world No. 4 after reaching the US Open semifinals last year and the Wimbledon quarterfinals this season. A back injury forced him out of Montreal earlier this month, though he returned to action in Cincinnati.

What to Watch

• Alcaraz's return: The defending champion has not played a singles tournament in four months. His US Open resume is formidable, but his form after the wrist injury remains one of the tournament's biggest variables.
• Zverev's major breakthrough: After winning Roland Garros and reaching the Wimbledon final, Zverev enters New York having reached the championship match at the past two majors.
• The Cincinnati effect: Fils arrives immediately after winning the final major tune-up before the US Open, giving the 8% contender one of the strongest recent results on the board.
• The American group: Fritz and Shelton are both priced at 7%, and both have previously reached at least the US Open semifinals.
• A reshaped draw: Sinner's withdrawal removes the world No. 1 and last year's runner-up from a field in which no remaining player is priced above 27%.

New to prediction markets? Read our guide to prediction markets for how prices work, what moves them, and what to know before trading.