US Open Women's Prediction Market: Odds and Favorites for 2026

Market Snapshot

• Aryna Sabalenka: 24%
• Coco Gauff: 16%
• Iga Swiatek: 15%
• Jessica Pegula: 8%
• Naomi Osaka: 7%
• Mirra Andreeva: 6%
• Amanda Anisimova: 5%
• Marta Kostyuk: 5%
• Elena Rybakina: 5%
• Volume: $1.4 million+
• Main draw: Aug. 30-Sept. 13, 2026
• Women's final: Sept. 12
• Broadcast: ESPN, ESPN2, ABC, ESPN Deportes, and the ESPN App
• Prediction market prices and volume as of approximately 9:15 a.m. ET on Aug. 30, 2026.

Quick Brief

Sabalenka has owned the past two US Opens, but prediction markets aren't treating a third straight title as anything close to a foregone conclusion.

The world No. 1 leads at 24%, followed by Gauff at 16% and Swiatek at 15%. The market then drops to Pegula at 8%, with five more players trading between 5% and 7%.

That creates a different setup from last year's tournament. Sabalenka returns as the two-time defending champion, while Anisimova, Osaka, and Pegula, last year’s other three semifinalists, are all back in the hunt.

There is also plenty of evidence that the women's major picture remains unsettled. Three different players won the first three Grand Slams of 2026, and none was Sabalenka.

The Big Picture

Sabalenka arrives in New York trying to become the first woman since Serena Williams to win three consecutive US Open singles titles.

The 28-year-old remains the world's top-ranked player and has won three titles this season. She has also spent more than 100 career weeks at No. 1 and enters the tournament as the top seed. But the first three majors of 2026 have gone elsewhere.

Rybakina won the Australian Open for her second career major. Andreeva broke through at Roland Garros for her first. Linda Noskova then won Wimbledon, giving the women's tour three different Grand Slam champions through the first three majors of the season.

The prediction market nevertheless puts two former US Open champions directly behind Sabalenka. Gauff, the 2023 champion, is trading at 16%, while 2022 champion Swiatek sits just behind her at 15%.

Swiatek also arrives with recent hard-court momentum. She won Toronto earlier this month, defeating Rybakina in the final for her first title of 2026.

Reading the Women's Field

The market gives Sabalenka a clear edge, but the board remains deep with former champions, recent major winners, and players who have already made deep runs in New York.

• Coco Gauff (16%): The 2023 US Open champion enters as the world No. 4 with a 40-13 record this season. Gauff reached the Wimbledon semifinals in July and then won Cincinnati, defeating Pegula in the final.
• Iga Swiatek (15%): The six-time major champion won the US Open in 2022 and enters New York after capturing Toronto for her first title of the season. She owns a 24-6 career record at the US Open.
• Jessica Pegula (8%): The world No. 3 reached the US Open final in 2024 and enters with 45 wins and two titles this season. She also reached the Cincinnati final immediately before the US Open.
• Naomi Osaka (7%): The two-time US Open champion reached the semifinals here last year and owns a 28-7 career record at the tournament. Osaka has also reached the fourth round at Roland Garros and the quarterfinals at Wimbledon this season.
• Mirra Andreeva (6%): The 19-year-old has already won three titles in 2026, including her first Grand Slam championship at Roland Garros. She enters as the world No. 5 with a 40-13 record this season.
• Amanda Anisimova (5%): Last year's US Open runner-up reached two Grand Slam finals in 2025, losing to Swiatek at Wimbledon and Sabalenka in New York. She has yet to win a title this season but reached the Cincinnati quarterfinals.
• Marta Kostyuk (5%): Has put together a breakout season with a 32-8 record and two titles. Kostyuk reached the semifinals at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon and has climbed to a career-high No. 11.
• Elena Rybakina (5%): The world No. 2 won the Australian Open in January and owns two titles this season. She also reached the Toronto final before losing to Swiatek, giving her a 42-13 record entering New York.

What to Watch

• Sabalenka's three-peat bid: No woman has won three consecutive US Open singles titles since Serena Williams. Sabalenka has a chance to match that run after winning in both 2024 and 2025.
• Gauff's hard-court momentum: Gauff enters immediately after winning Cincinnati, adding another significant hard-court title to the resume of a former US Open champion.
• Swiatek's resurgence: After going without a title for much of the season, Swiatek won Toronto and enters New York priced almost evenly with Gauff.
• The 2026 major winners: Rybakina and Andreeva are both trading at 6% or lower despite winning majors this season, while Wimbledon champion Noskova sits below the 5% cutoff used in the Market Snapshot.
• Last year's finalists: Sabalenka is the market leader at 24%, while Anisimova is trading at just 5% one year after reaching the championship match.

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