Washington State vs. Washington: What Prediction Markets Expect in the Apple Cup

The Huskies carry a 93% win probability after routing the Cougars 59–24 last season, the most points either team has scored in the rivalry. Prediction markets also give Washington a 47% chance of winning by more than 24.5 points, setting a high bar for a Washington State team beginning a new era.

Market Snapshot

• Washington: 93%
• Washington State: 7%
• Washington -24.5: 47%
• Over 51.5 points: 50%
• Washington over 37.5 points: 51%
• Washington State over 13.5 points: 54%
• Volume: $578K+
• Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 6, 4 p.m. ET
• Venue: Husky Stadium, Seattle, Washington
• Watch: NBC
• Prices and volume as of 7:23 a.m. ET on Sept. 6, 2026.

Quick Brief

The Apple Cup has been played since 1900, but it has never opened the season.

That changes Sunday when Washington and Washington State meet in Seattle for the earliest Apple Cup in series history. Washington enters ranked No. 17 and as a commanding 93% favorite in prediction markets.

The Huskies also have recent history on their side. Washington leads the series 77–34–6 and has won 20 of the past 27 meetings. Last September brought the most points either team has scored in the rivalry, as Washington won 59–24 in Pullman.

The market expects another Washington victory. It also gives the Huskies a 47% probability of winning by more than 24.5 points and is essentially split on whether Washington reaches 38 points.

For the Cougars, reaching two touchdowns isn’t priced as a given. Washington State has a 54% probability of scoring more than 13.5 points.

Can Washington Repeat Last Year's Rout?

Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. was at the center of last year's Apple Cup blowout.

Williams completed 16 of 19 passes for 298 yards and four touchdowns, then added 88 rushing yards and another score. He finished his first full season as Washington's starter with 3,065 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and another 611 yards and six scores on the ground.

Now he begins 2026 against a familiar opponent.

Washington's team total of more than 37.5 points is priced at 51%, while a win by more than 24.5 sits at 47%. The Huskies are expected to win comfortably, but matching last year's 35-point margin would require them to clear an already substantial market threshold.

Washington State Starts Over

The Cougars look considerably different from the team Washington faced last September.

Kirby Moore takes over a roster featuring 50 new players and only four returning starters. At quarterback, UC Davis transfer Caden Pinnick gets the job after throwing for 3,206 yards and 32 touchdowns as a freshman and earning Big Sky Freshman of the Year honors.

His first FBS start comes on the road against a ranked rival.

Washington State has only a 7% probability of winning, but the market gives the Cougars a 54% chance of scoring more than 13.5 points.

The rivalry itself has changed, too. Washington left for the Big Ten in 2024, while Washington State begins its first season in the rebuilt Pac-12. The Apple Cup survived the split, producing a 24–19 Washington State win in 2024 before Washington answered with last year's rout.

Sunday brings another change: the first season-opening Apple Cup in the rivalry's 126-year history.

What to Watch

• Williams against the Cougars: Washington's quarterback accounted for five touchdowns in last year's Apple Cup.
• The 24.5-point threshold: Washington is a 93% favorite to win and has a 47% probability of winning by more than 24.5.
• Pinnick's debut: The former UC Davis quarterback makes his first FBS start against a ranked rival at Husky Stadium.
• Can WSU reach 14? More than 13.5 Cougars points is priced at 54%.

Prediction markets expect Washington to keep the Apple Cup in Seattle. The bigger question is what the first look at these teams says about the distance between them after last year's 35-point Washington win.

New to trading? See what to watch for this season in our guide to Football Prediction Markets 2026.