Who Will Win the Heisman Trophy? Prediction Market Forecast for 2026

Market Snapshot

• CJ Carr, Notre Dame: 12%
• Arch Manning, Texas: 10%
• Darian Mensah, Miami: 10%
• Dante Moore, Oregon: 9%
• Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss: 8%
• Julian Sayin, Ohio State: 7%
• Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State: 7%
• Josh Hoover, Indiana: 5%
• Keelon Russell, Alabama: 5%
• Market volume: $10.3M+
• Heisman Trophy ceremony: Dec. 12, 2026
• Prices as of 5:55 a.m. ET on Sept. 1, 2026.

Quick Brief

Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr enters the first full week of the college football season atop the Heisman Trophy prediction market, but his 12% probability hardly makes him a runaway favorite.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning and Miami quarterback Darian Mensah follow at 10%, with Oregon quarterback Dante Moore at 9% and Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss at 8%.

The crowded field continues from there. Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith are both priced at 7%, while Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover and Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell sit at 5%.

More than $10.3 million has already traded on the market, yet none of the leading contenders has reached even a 15% probability.

A Wide-Open Heisman Race

The early market reflects just how unsettled the Heisman race remains.

Carr is the leader, but only five percentage points separate him from Sayin and Smith at 7%. Nine players currently carry probabilities of at least 5%, while several more contenders sit immediately behind them.

That leaves plenty of room for the board to change once the season gets rolling.

Carr enters the year as one of the most closely watched players in the country after throwing for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2025. Notre Dame opens its season against Wisconsin on Sept. 6, giving the current market leader his first opportunity to strengthen or surrender his position atop the board.

Manning begins another season under an intense spotlight at Texas, while Moore, Mensah, Sayin, and Chambliss give the market a deep group of quarterbacks playing for teams with major expectations.

Reading the Market

Quarterbacks dominate the current board.

Eight of the nine players priced at 5% or higher play quarterback. The lone exception is Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who sits at 7% alongside his own quarterback, Julian Sayin.

Smith's presence near the top is notable because wide receivers rarely win the Heisman. DeVonta Smith was the last full-time wide receiver to win the Heisman, taking the award in 2020. Travis Hunter followed in 2024 while playing significant roles at both wide receiver and defensive back.

The board also illustrates how quickly the race could change. With the favorite at only 12%, a major early-season performance or disappointing start from one of the leading contenders could produce significant movement.

The market extends well beyond the current price leaders. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava, Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer, Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed, and LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt are each priced at 4%, while Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton and South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers sit at 3%.

For now, traders aren't expressing strong conviction about who will win. They're pricing a large group of plausible candidates with nearly the entire season still ahead.

What to Watch

• Carr at the top: At just 12%, Carr has the narrowest possible grip on favorite status. His early-season performances will determine whether he can create separation from a crowded group immediately behind him.
• Manning's next move: Manning enters September at 10%, but the market has already cooled from the higher levels he traded at earlier in the year. His early-season performance gives traders a chance to reassess where he belongs.
• Ohio State's two contenders: Sayin and Smith are both priced at 7%, creating an unusual dynamic in which a quarterback and his top receiving target could compete for Heisman attention on the same offense.
• The next tier: Maiava, Mateer, Reed, and Leavitt are each sitting at 4%, leaving several recognizable contenders within striking distance of the crowded top group.
• The long runway: Heisman ballots aren't distributed until Dec. 3, with voting closing and finalists announced Dec. 7. The winner will be revealed during the Dec. 12 ceremony in New York.

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