Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame: Fighting Irish Open National Title Chase at Lambeau

No. 4 Notre Dame opens a season filled with national championship expectations Sunday night against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field.

The Fighting Irish are among the leading title contenders. Quarterback CJ Carr enters as a Heisman Trophy favorite. Prediction markets give Notre Dame a 91% probability of starting the  2026 season with a bang. 

Market Snapshot

• Notre Dame: 91%
• Wisconsin: 9%
• Notre Dame -21.5: 48%
• Over 45.5 points: 51%
• Notre Dame over 34.5 points: 49%
• Wisconsin over 13.5 points: 45%
• Volume: $2.64M+
• Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 6, 7:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
• Watch: NBC, Peacock
• Prediction market prices and volume as of 1:29 p.m. ET on Sept. 6, 2026.

Quick Brief

Notre Dame's 2025 season ended without a postseason game.

The Irish started 0–2, then won 10 straight games, all by double digits, and entered selection weekend firmly in the College Football Playoff conversation. Instead, Notre Dame finished No. 11 in the committee rankings and became the first team left out of the 12-team field, with Miami claiming the final at-large spot. The Irish subsequently declined a bowl invitation.

Expectations haven't gone anywhere.

Notre Dame begins 2026 ranked No. 4 in the AP poll, receiving six first-place votes, and enters the season among the leading national championship contenders.

Prediction markets see little danger in the opener. Notre Dame carries a 91% win probability against Wisconsin. Winning by more than 21.5 points sits at 48%.

The market expects the Irish to win. Sunday offers the first look at whether they resemble the championship contender they're expected to be.

CJ Carr Begins a Heisman Campaign

Much of Notre Dame's optimism starts at quarterback.

Carr threw for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns in his first season as the starter. His 24 touchdown passes tied the most by a Notre Dame quarterback through his first 12 career starts since 1966, while the Irish finished second nationally in scoring at 41.8 points per game.

He enters 2026 firmly in the Heisman conversation and appears on preseason watch lists for the Maxwell, Davey O'Brien, Manning, Walter Camp, and Johnny Unitas Golden Arm awards.

Wisconsin gets the first look at what comes next.

Notre Dame's probability of scoring more than 34.5 points is 49%, almost exactly a coin flip. That's a useful early benchmark for an offense that averaged nearly 42 points per game with Carr behind center last season.

Wisconsin Gets Another Top-Five Test at Lambeau

Wisconsin enters from a very different position.

The Badgers went 4–8 last season, their third straight year with a declining win total under Luke Fickell. They finished with home victories over ranked Washington and Illinois and now bring more than 50 newcomers into Fickell's fourth full season. Old Dominion transfer Colton Joseph takes over at quarterback.

The setting provides Wisconsin with at least one encouraging precedent.

The Badgers' last game at Lambeau was also a season opener against a top-five opponent. Unranked Wisconsin upset No. 5 LSU 16–14 in 2016. Sunday is Wisconsin's first season opener against another top-five team since that game.

Prediction markets aren't expecting a repeat. Wisconsin has just a 9% probability of winning, while its chance of scoring more than 13.5 points sits at 45%.

What to Watch

• Carr's first Heisman statement: Notre Dame's quarterback begins the season as one of the leading contenders for college football's biggest individual award.
• The 21.5-point threshold: Notre Dame is a 91% favorite to win, but its probability of winning by more than three touchdowns sits at 48%.
• Notre Dame's offense: More than 34.5 Irish points is priced at 49% after the team averaged 41.8 per game last season.
• Wisconsin at Lambeau: The Badgers haven't played here since upsetting No. 5 LSU in their 2016 opener.

Notre Dame spent last December watching the College Football Playoff from home. Ten months later, the Irish begin again as one of the teams expected to contend to win it all. Sunday night at Lambeau is the first test.

New to trading? See what to watch for this season in our guide to Football Prediction Markets 2026.