Dancing With the Stars Prediction Market: Who Leads After the Season 35 Premiere?

Season 35 of Dancing With the Stars started with 16 celebrities and an unusually consequential opening week.

After two nights of performances and two eliminations, Harry Shum Jr. and Maura Higgins sit atop both the judges' leaderboard and the prediction market. With 14 couples still standing, the early race is nowhere near settled.

Market Snapshot

• Harry Shum Jr.: 21%
• Maura Higgins: 20%
• Ezra Frech: 16%
• Jenna Dewan: 15%
• Amber Glenn: 8%
• Jackson Olson: 7%
• Julia Stiles: 6%
• Volume: $1.61M+
• Next episode: Tuesday, Sept. 22, 8 p.m. ET
• Watch: ABC and Disney+
• Prediction market prices as of 5:20 a.m. ET on Sept. 18, 2026.

Quick Brief

The first week did more than introduce the Season 35 cast. It immediately separated a group of early contenders.

Harry Shum Jr. and Maura Higgins each earned 21 out of 30, the highest judges' scores of the two-night premiere. Ezra Frech followed with 20, Jenna Dewan scored 19, and Amber Glenn and Julia Stiles each earned 18.

The prediction market has landed in roughly the same place at the top. Shum leads at 21%, Higgins is directly behind him at 20%, and Frech and Dewan form the next tier at 16% and 15%.

That's a notable reshuffling from our pre-premiere look at Season 35, when traders had no scored performances to evaluate. Now the board has actual evidence to absorb.

Harry Shum Jr. and Maura Higgins set the early pace

Shum entered the competition with an obvious asset: an extensive dance background that includes work as a professional dancer and his breakout role on Glee. His opening cha-cha with Jenna Johnson delivered on those expectations, earning a 21 and the highest score on the men's side.

Higgins provided the more immediate opening-week surprise.

Her foxtrot with Mark Ballas also scored 21, topping the women's night. The judges praised her first performance, while the market now has her only one point behind Shum for the overall lead.

Frech is close behind at 16% after scoring 20 for his tango with Daniella Karagach. Dewan, who has her own professional dance background, sits at 15% after opening with a 19-point tango alongside Val Chmerkovskiy.

Taken together, the top four account for 72 percentage points of the current board. That's a concentrated early market, but it's still based on only one dance from each contestant.

The judges and prediction market don't agree everywhere

The board becomes more interesting below the first four.

Amber Glenn and Julia Stiles tied at 18 points with the judges, but traders currently price Glenn at 8% and Stiles at 6%. Jackson Olson, meanwhile, sits at 7% despite scoring only 15 in his first performance.

Tyler Cameron illustrates the gap in the other direction. His opening tango scored 17, good for seventh on the Week 1 leaderboard, but he carries just a 2% chance of winning in the current market.

That's one reason a Dancing With the Stars winner market isn't simply a forecast of future judges' scores. Viewer voting is combined with the judges' results to determine who advances, meaning popularity and audience support become part of the equation alongside dancing ability.

It's also a useful example of how prediction markets continuously incorporate new information. Before the premiere, traders could price reputation, experience, and expected audience appeal. Now they can react to actual performances and voting results.

Two contestants are already out

Season 35 opened with an unusual two-night format: the male celebrities danced Tuesday, followed by the women Wednesday, with one elimination each night.

Conner Leavitt and Adele Zaikman were eliminated Tuesday after receiving a 12 for their salsa. Sarah Jane Nader and Hailey Bills followed Wednesday after scoring 14 for their jive. Fourteen couples remain.

The results also provided an early reminder that surviving the competition isn't purely about avoiding the bottom of the judges' leaderboard.

Tatyana Ali also scored 12 but advanced, while Guillermo Rodriguez survived despite receiving a 10, the lowest score of the entire premiere.

As the field continues to narrow, the viewer-vote component becomes even more important.

What happens next on Dancing With the Stars?

The full remaining cast comes together for the first time Tuesday, Sept. 22, at 8 p.m. ET on ABC and Disney+. The premiere separated the men and women across two nights. 

Week 2 returns the competition to a single show with all 14 remaining couples. ABC had not announced the episode's theme as of Friday morning. 

The next major market catalyst is straightforward: another round of performances, scores, viewer voting, and an elimination. In the interim, the market remains active as traders look ahead to Tuesday night. 

What to Watch

• Can Shum and Higgins separate? One percentage point divides the two market leaders after they tied atop the Week 1 judges' leaderboard.
• Frech and Dewan are within striking distance: At 16% and 15%, neither is far behind the leading pair after strong debuts.
• Who emerges from the middle? Glenn, Olson, and Stiles occupy the 6%–8% range, leaving plenty of room for one strong Week 2 performance to alter the early hierarchy.
• Audience support matters: Ali and Rodriguez survived despite finishing at or near the bottom of the judges' scores. The first eliminations showed why dance scores alone won't explain this market.
• One stage, one field: Tuesday will be the first time all remaining contestants compete on the same night, giving traders a cleaner side-by-side comparison than the split premiere.

Season 35 has only completed its first dances, but the winner market now has something it didn't have before the premiere: results. The next question is how quickly one performance can change them.

See our guide to the best prediction market platforms for more on where event contracts are available and how leading platforms differ.