Dancing With the Stars Disney Night: Prediction Market Prices & Preview

The race for the Dancing With the Stars Mirrorball Trophy is narrowing, but the prediction market is becoming increasingly one-sided.

Ezra Frech has climbed to 63% on Kalshi following Tuesday's Horror Movie Night, extending his commanding lead despite being outscored by several competitors. Harry Shum Jr., meanwhile, earned a perfect 40 from the judges but remains a long shot in the winner market.

With two contestants eliminated and Disney Night approaching on November 2, the latest prices reveal a striking divide between recent ballroom performances and expectations for the Season 35 winner.

Market Snapshot

• Market: Dancing With the Stars Season 35 - Winner
• Next episode: Disney Night, Monday, November 2, at 8 p.m. ET
• Broadcast: ABC and Disney+
• Season finale: Tuesday, November 24, 2026
• Market resolution: Official announcement of the Season 35 winner, expected during the finale
• Current favorite: Ezra Frech (63%)
• Leading challengers: Amber Glenn (16%), Jenna Dewan (7%), and Maura Higgins (6%)
• Trading volume: $6,820,847

Kalshi prices as of 5:05 a.m. ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026.

Latest Dancing With the Stars Prediction Market Winner Prices

Frech's position has strengthened even as the judges' leaderboard has grown more competitive. The Paralympic champion is now priced 47 percentage points ahead of Glenn, his nearest challenger, with the rest of the field attracting only single-digit probabilities.

Compared with last week's Horror Movie Night market snapshot, several changes stand out:

• Ezra Frech - 63%: Up six percentage points from 57%, consolidating his position as the overwhelming favorite.
• Amber Glenn - 16%: Up from 14%, retaining second place while making only modest progress toward closing the gap.
• Jenna Dewan - 7%: Holds third place in the current market after another strong performance.
• Maura Higgins - 6%: Down from 10% last week, losing ground despite surviving the double elimination.
• Harry Shum Jr. - 4%: Down from 5% even after earning the season's first perfect score.

The remaining contestants are priced as substantial outsiders. The market has also added roughly $490,000 in trading volume since last week's snapshot, rising from more than $6.33 million to approximately $6.82 million.

The most revealing development isn't simply Frech's six-point gain. It's that his advantage has widened during a week when other contestants delivered some of their strongest performances.

Kalshi's contracts concern the eventual winner, not the highest-scoring dancer on a particular night. The pricing suggests traders continue to place considerable weight on Frech's broader championship prospects rather than treating individual judges' scores as decisive.

Horror Movie Night Recap: Perfect Score, Double Elimination

Horror Movie Night delivered the season's first perfect score, several standout performances, and a double elimination that reduced the field from 10 couples to eight.

Guest judge Shirley Ballas joined Carrie Ann Inaba, Derek Hough, and Bruno Tonioli for an evening of horror-film-inspired routines. The performances ranged from a flawless contemporary dance to several difficult outings that exposed how unforgiving the competition has become.

Among the night's defining moments:

• Harry Shum Jr. stole the show. Dancing with Jenna Johnson, Shum earned 40/40 for a Saw-inspired contemporary routine to 2WEI's “Toxic.” Four perfect 10s gave him the season's first flawless judges' score and the night's highest mark.
• Jenna Dewan and Connor Wood delivered breakthroughs. Dewan and Val Chmerkovskiy scored 37/40 for a zombie-themed Argentine tango to “Uninvited.” Wood and Rylee Arnold matched that score with an Annabelle: Creation-inspired contemporary to “You Are My Sunshine,” a substantial improvement over Wood's previous 32.
• Amber Glenn remained among the leaders. Glenn and Pasha Pashkov performed a Black Swan-inspired Argentine tango to Clint Mansell's “Perfection,” earning 36/40. It followed her 38-point performance on Dedication Night.
• Ezra Frech faced an unusual challenge. Frech and Daniella Karagach scored 35/40 for jazz to Ruelle's “Madness,” inspired by The Invisible Man. Judges praised his athleticism while encouraging stronger storytelling, and Carrie Ann Inaba acknowledged that he was performing through an injury.
• Julia Stiles and Tatyana Ali struggled. Stiles scored 26/40 for an Omen-inspired Argentine tango to “The Dogs Attack,” while Ali received 28/40 for a Sinners-inspired paso doble to “I Lied to You.” Both survived.
• Tyler Cameron and Jackson Olson were eliminated. Cameron scored 26 for a Bram Stoker's Dracula-inspired Viennese waltz to “Love Song for a Vampire.” Olson earned a stronger 35 for a Joker-inspired contemporary to Frank Sinatra's “That's Life,” but neither advanced after judges' scores and viewer votes were combined.

The results underline why a single strong routine cannot be treated as a direct measure of championship probability. Shum led the night with 40 points, yet the market assigns him just a 4% chance of winning the season. Frech finished five points behind him but remains the clear favorite.

Olson's elimination is another reminder that strong judges' scores do not guarantee survival. With viewer voting contributing to the results, the competition measures more than technical performance, and that distinction matters when interpreting the winner market.

Disney Night Preview: Can the Challengers Close the Gap?

Disney Night arrives at an intriguing point in Season 35. The field is smaller, the finale is less than a month away, and several contestants have demonstrated they can outperform the market favorite on the judges' scorecards.

Monday's episode will feature Disney-themed routines and guest judge Cynthia Erivo, joining Carrie Ann Inaba, Derek Hough, and Bruno Tonioli. The broadcast moves from its usual Tuesday slot to Monday, November 2, at 8 p.m. ET on ABC and Disney+, ahead of ABC's midterm elections coverage.

Four developments are particularly worth watching:

• Can Frech sharpen his storytelling? His 35-point Horror Movie Night routine drew praise for athleticism but criticism for its narrative execution. Disney Night's character-driven format offers an opportunity to address that feedback, although his physical condition will also be worth monitoring.
• Will Shum's perfect score become a turning point? His Saw-inspired contemporary demonstrated his technical and performance range, but Kalshi still prices him at only 4%. Another exceptional showing could test whether traders are undervaluing his recent momentum.
• Can Glenn or Dewan emerge as a stronger challenger? Glenn has finished among the leading scorers in consecutive episodes, while Dewan's 37-point Argentine tango reinforced her credentials. Both have more substantial market support than Shum, but neither has come close to Frech's championship price.
• What changes with eight couples remaining? Horror Movie Night showed that even a respectable score offers limited protection when viewer votes enter the equation. With Grammy Night on November 10 and the semifinals on November 17, the remaining contestants have little time to establish themselves before the November 24 finale.

Disney Night's individual song selections and dance assignments have yet to be announced. Reports indicate the episode will feature both individual routines and a group dance.

The judges have shown that several contestants can outperform Frech on a given night. Disney Night will offer another test of whether those performances can translate into enough sustained audience support to challenge his commanding position in the winner market.