DWTS Prediction Market Has a Clear Favorite After Yacht Rock Night

The judges had new favorites Tuesday night. Prediction market traders stuck with theirs.

Ezra Frech didn't top the leaderboard on Dancing With the Stars' Yacht Rock Night, but his advantage in the winner market continued to grow. Amber Glenn and Harry Shum Jr. made their own cases with the season's first 8s.

Market Snapshot

• Ezra Frech: 46%
• Amber Glenn: 14%
• Harry Shum Jr.: 14%
• Maura Higgins: 12%
• Jenna Dewan: 11%
• Market volume: $3.94M+
• Finale: Nov. 24, 8 p.m. EST
• Prediction market prices on Kalshi as of 5:41 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026.

Quick Brief

Frech has created the first significant separation of the season.

The Paralympic gold medalist sits at 46% to win Season 35, well ahead of Glenn and Shum at 14% apiece. Higgins follows at 12%, with Dewan at 11%.

That's a major change from last week, when Frech led at 26% and Shum and Higgins were tied behind him at 17%. His probability has climbed 20 points even though the judges' leaderboard has become more competitive.

Glenn was the biggest mover among the challengers, gaining four points after delivering one of Tuesday's two standout performances. Shum climbed three points to join her at 14%.

The result is an unusual early split: the top five contestants are separated by only two points in cumulative judges' scoring, while Frech controls nearly half of the prediction market.

Glenn and Shum steal the show

Glenn opened Yacht Rock Night with a foxtrot to Toto's "Hold the Line," days after accidentally bloodying partner Pasha Pashkov's nose during rehearsal.

There was little evidence of the disruption Tuesday. Glenn's background as a figure skater translated naturally to the slower routine, with the judges praising her glide, flow, and continued improvement. She earned three 8s for a 24, briefly establishing the highest score of the season.

Shum matched it later in the show.

His jive with Jenna Johnson to Hall & Oates' "You Make My Dreams (Come True)" featured fast, synchronized choreography that earned praise from the judges after a more uneven Week 2. The three 8s represented a six-point improvement from his previous performance.

Glenn and Shum now share the season scoring lead with 63 points, followed by Higgins and Frech at 62 and Dewan at 61.

Higgins remained near the top with a 22 for her quickstep to George Benson's "Turn Your Love Around," while Dewan earned 21 for a samba to Toto's "Africa."

Frech's market lead keeps growing

Frech's performance was less spectacular, but hardly a setback.

He and Daniella Karagach danced a foxtrot to "Just the Two of Us," a slower routine that presented a different challenge after last week's energetic cha-cha. Frech had described the foxtrot as his most difficult dance yet because of the control required and the adjustments involved with his prosthetic leg.

The judges gave him three 7s for a 21. He remained just one point off the season scoring lead.

The market reaction is more notable than the score. Frech has moved from 26% to 46% in one week despite Glenn and Shum producing Tuesday's breakthrough performances.

Through three weeks, judges and traders are telling somewhat different stories. The leaderboard shows five tightly packed contenders. The prediction market increasingly shows Frech and everyone else.

Taylor Hanson becomes the surprise exit

Yacht Rock Night also produced the season's most surprising elimination.

Taylor Hanson and Britt Stewart danced a foxtrot to the Doobie Brothers' "What a Fool Believes." The routine had some graceful moments, but Hanson struggled with consistency and finished with an 18.

That still put him above Tyler Cameron and Guillermo Rodriguez and level with Ciara Miller and Jackson Olson.

It wasn't enough.

Hanson and Stewart were eliminated after judges' scores were combined with viewer voting, another reminder that technical performance alone doesn't determine who survives.

Twelve couples remain heading into Mariah Carey Night.

What to Watch

• Can Frech hold the lead? His probability has jumped 20 points in a week even as other contenders have closed the gap with the judges.
• Glenn's momentum: Her breakthrough foxtrot moved her into a tie for both the season scoring lead and second place in the prediction market.
• Shum's response: After an 18 last week, his 24 represented one of the night's biggest improvements and kept him among Frech's closest challengers.
• The audience vote: Hanson's elimination showed how quickly the competition can change once viewer support is added to judges' scores.
• Mariah Carey Night: Five contestants sit within two points of the season scoring lead, giving the next round plenty of room to reshape the market.

For comparison, see how the DWTS winner market looked after Viral Hits Night, when Frech first moved into the lead.