Dancing With the Stars Prediction Market: Frontrunner Hits 50% After Mariah Carey Night
Ezra Frech has opened a commanding prediction market lead after Mariah Carey Night, even as Maura Higgins delivered the highest-scoring routine of the season.
The Dancing With the Stars winner market has a clear frontrunner.
Ezra Frech has climbed to 50% following Tuesday's Mariah Carey Night, putting considerable distance between himself and the rest of the Season 35 field. Amber Glenn sits second at 16%, while Harry Shum Jr. and Maura Higgins are tied at 13%.
Market Snapshot
- Ezra Frech: 50%
- Amber Glenn: 16%
- Harry Shum Jr.: 13%
- Maura Higgins: 13%
- Volume: $4.86M+
- Finale: Nov. 24, 8 p.m. EST
- Prediction market prices as of approximately 6:15 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026.
Quick Brief
Frech has separated from the field, but Tuesday night's results offered another reminder that the winner market isn't simply a reflection of the judges' leaderboard.
Maura Higgins and Mark Ballas delivered the night's top performance, scoring 25 out of 30 for their waltz to Mariah Carey's “If It's Over.” Frech earned 24 for his rumba to “Anytime You Need a Friend,” matching Harry Shum Jr. and Jenna Dewan for the night's second-highest score. Amber Glenn followed with 23.
Yet the prediction market has Frech at 50%, more than three times the probability of any individual challenger. Higgins' standout night hasn't been enough to close that gap, leaving Glenn, Shum, and Higgins clustered together as the primary chasing group.
Frech separates from the field
Frech's rise hasn't come from one breakthrough performance.
He entered Mariah Carey Night firmly among the season's leading contenders before delivering his best judges' score yet. Tuesday presented a different challenge: a slower rumba that Frech said required unfamiliar movement and muscle groups compared with his earlier routines. He still earned three 8s for a 24-point total.
Higgins, however, produced the night's biggest judges' result. Her 25 included the season's first 9 and established a new season-high score. Despite that performance, she remains at 13% in the winner market.
That gap is increasingly the story of the board: Frech doesn't need to win every individual night for traders to continue treating him as the contestant to beat.
Another elimination shows the importance of viewer votes
Ciara Miller's elimination offered the other important signal Tuesday.
Miller and Brandon Armstrong scored 21 for their jazz routine to “Emotions,” well above Guillermo Rodriguez's night-low 13. But Miller was eliminated after judges' scores were combined with viewer voting. Rodriguez survived, as did Jackson Olson, who also scored 21 and was among the final three couples announced.
It's an important distinction for interpreting the winner market. Judges' scores provide one visible measure of performance, but audience support can produce a very different result and ultimately determines survival alongside the judges' totals.
What to Watch
- Can anyone close the Frech gap? Glenn, Shum, and Higgins are separated by only three percentage points while Frech sits at 50%.
- Higgins' momentum: The market hasn't fully followed her judges' breakthrough. Another strong performance could test that.
- Viewer support: Miller's exit showed again that a respectable judges' score doesn't guarantee safety.
- Super Bowl Night: The remaining couples return Oct. 13 for the show's first Super Bowl-themed episode, performing to songs associated with iconic halftime shows.
Frech has become the prediction market's clear contestant to beat, but Tuesday demonstrated why the board can change quickly. Higgins produced the season's strongest judges' score without making a comparable move toward Frech, while another elimination showed how much remains hidden in the audience vote.
For more on how the market has evolved, see our previous look at the Dancing With the Stars prediction market after Yacht Rock Night.
